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Get the best expert UFC 313 predictions from our MMA handicappers this weekend. The UFC is back on pay-per-view (PPV) this Saturday. UFC 313 will be hosted at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The headliner main event will feature Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the light heavyweight title.
There are also three other fighters ranked in the top five of their division in action. Justin Gaethje (#3 LW), Amanda Lemos (#5 WSW) and Curtis Blaydes (#5 HW) are all scheduled to fight at UFC 313.
We’ll have expert UFC 313 predictions for every fight on the main card, prelims and early prelims.
UFC 313 Preview
- When: Saturday, March 8th 2024
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Start Time: 6:30 PM ET / 8:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM ET
- Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN / ESPN+ / Pay-Per-View
This definitely isn’t the strongest PPV fight card. UFC fans won’t want to miss the main event, but the rest of the card is lacking a bit. The co-main event is a rematch between Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.
I’m interested in seeing how Mauricio Ruffy fares against the hard-hitting veteran King Green. Ruffy is 2-0 in the UFC, with a TKO win against Jamie Mullarkey. The undefeated Rei Tsuruya won his UFC debut by decision against Carlos Hernandez. He’ll be tested much more in his fight against Joshua Van.
Djorden Santos will make his UFC debut after earning a contract on the DWCS as a big underdog. He has an interesting story as well. Santos is coming into this fight as the favorite against Ozzy Diaz.
Expert UFC 313 Predictions
We have multiple MMA handicappers releasing UFC 313 predictions this week. You can open an account to access all of the UFC picks our experts release. All of my plays will be on my profile (SWJ Sports).
This isn’t a fight card I’m overly excited to watch, but there are still money making opportunities.
The last four fights of the night are all going to be competitive and have tight odds. Only four fights have favorites priced above -300 odds, so there’s a good chance we’ll see multiple underdogs cashing in.
Let’s jump into my UFC 313 predictions for the main card and prelims.
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Predictions
- Fight Odds: Pereira (-120) vs. Ankalaev (-110)
Pereira (12-2) is 9-1 in the UFC and went 3-0 in the octagon last year, with three TKO/KO finishes. He’ll be tested against Ankalaev (19-1-1-1), but I’m surprised the betting lines are so tight in this fight.
Ankalaev has been impressive, but he hasn’t fought the top competition in the division. Both guys rarely attempt takedowns. Pereira averages 5.46 SLpM and 3.44 SApM, while Ankalaev averages 3.64 SLpM and 2.37 SApM. One edge for Pereira in this fight is his long reach (79” vs. 75”).
Ankalaev has never been knocked out, but Pereira has knocked out seven of his UFC opponents.
Get my best bets for this fight by accessing my UFC 313 predictions on my profile (SWJ Sports).
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Predictions
- Fight Odds: Gaethje (+130) vs. Fiziev (-160)
Gaethje (25-5) defeated Fiziev (12-3) by majority decision back in March 2023. Gaethje is 1-1 since, with a KO win against Dustin Poirier and a KO loss against Max Holloway. Fiziev lost to Mateusz Gamrot by TKO last time out in September 2023 and hasn’t fought since due to a serious knee injury.
Why is Fiziev favored? We haven’t seen him in the cage for a while and he’s coming off a major injury, so we have no idea how he’ll look. Gaethje is getting up there in age, but he still has insane power. Gaethje averages 6.78 SLpM and 7.46 SApM. Fiziev averages 4.90 SLpM and 4.97 SApM.
It’s unlikely we see either fighter attempt a takedown. This will be a striking war. Gaethje has the edge in power, but he takes a lot of damage due to his fighting style. Who will win on Saturday night?
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Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Predictions
- Fight Odds: Turner (+100) vs. Bahamondes (-130)
Turner (14-8) is just 1-3 in his last four fights. He was knocked out by Renato Carneiro last April. Turner has never been able to get over the hump in the UFC. Bahamondes (16-5) is 5-2 in the UFC. He’s on a two-fight win streak, with both wins coming by TKO/KO. He has 11 TKO/KO wins in his career.
Bahamondes averages 7.17 SLpM and 4.41 SApM. He has never landed a takedown, but he has 85% takedown defense (TDD). Turner averages 5.60 SLpM and 4.57 SApM. Both guys have a long reach.
This should be another banger, with both guys looking for the TKO/KO finish.
Bahamondes has impressed in his last two fights and I’m backing him to win at UFC 313.
Best Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes ML
Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo Predictions
- Fight Odds: Lemos (+110) vs. Lucindo (-140)
Lemos (14-4-1) is trending down in recent years. She’s 1-2 in the last two years and she’s coming off a submission loss against Virna Jandiroba. Lucindo (17-5) lost her UFC debut, but has gone 4-0 since.
Lucindo averages 3.52 SLpM, 2.91 SApM and 2.40 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes. Lemos has 61% TDD, while averaging 3.16 SLpM and 3.87 SApM. Lemos is a threat to win by TKO/KO, and Lucindo has been knocked out once. Lucindo has excellent striking defense, though.
This fight could be a bit of passing the torch to the younger Brazilian talent. Lucindo can earn a big name win on her resume and continue moving up the rankings for a title shot.
Find out who our MMA experts are picking to win this fight by joining Sports Hub.
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Predictions
- Fight Odds: Green (+335) vs. Ruffy (-460)
Green (32-16-1-1) has been finished in two of his last three fights. In his last nine fights, he only has one TKO/KO win. He’s also 38 years old. Ruffy is a 28-year-old prospect who is 2-0 in the UFC.
Ruffy averages 4.70 SLpM and 4.76 SApM. He’ll have a 4” reach advantage in this fight. Green averages 6.43 SLpM and 3.73 SApM. Green is an active striker, but lacks power at this point in his career. He has landed one takedown in each of his last two fights, but Ruffy hasn’t been taken down yet in the UFC.
Ruffy is a powerful striker. A loss in this spot would impact his trajectory in the division.
Can Green pull off the upset at huge odds? Check out all of my UFC 313 predictions on my profile.
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Predictions
- Fight Odds: Blaydes (-350) vs. Kuniev (+250)
Blaydes (18-5-0-1) is coming off a quick KO loss against Tom Aspinall. Blaydes is 3-2 in his last five fights and every fight has ended by TKO/KO in the first two rounds. Kuniev (12-2-1-1) will be making his UFC debut after making two appearances on the DWCS. He hasn’t lost an MMA fight since 2015.
Kuniev has won his last four fights by stoppage (3 TKO/KO and 1 Submission). Blaydes will have a 4” reach advantage. Blaydes averages 3.54 SLpM, 1.91 SApM and 5.69 TDs per 15 minutes. Blaydes is a capable grappler, but he hasn’t landed a takedown in his last five fights.
Kuniev has never been stopped, but that’ll change against the experienced Blaydes.
Best Bet: Curtis Blaydes by TKO/KO
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya Predictions
- Fight Odds: Van (-190) vs. Tsuruya (+160)
Van (12-2) is 5-1 in the UFC. He fought four times last year, going 3-1. He’s won two in a row by decision. Tsuruya (10-0) won UFC Road to UFC 2 and his promotional debut last June.
Tsuruya averages 5.45 TDs per 15 minutes (50% accuracy). Van has 80% TDD, but that’ll be tested. Van averages 8.88 SLpM, 5.82 SApM and 1.32 TDs per 15 minutes. Tsuruya hasn’t fought anyone with the volume striking that Van utilizes. He landed 165 significant strikes in his last fight against Cody Durden.
This has the potential to be one of the best fights of the night. Van is 23 years old and Tsuruya is 22 years old. Both have had promising starts to their UFC careers. Grappling will likely play a big role in this fight.
Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Predictions
- Fight Odds: Ferreira (+120) vs. Petrosyan (-150)
Ferreira (12-2) is 3-2 in the UFC. He has three KO wins against Gregory Rodrigues, Phil Hawes and Dustin Stoltzfus, but two stoppage losses against Nursulton Ruziboev and Abusupiyan Magomedov.
Petrosyan (9-4) has lost two in a row by stoppage against Rodolfo Vieira and Sharabutdin Magomedov. There’s a good chance we’re going to see a finish in this fight, so we’ll want to target the round total.
Ferreira is a live underdog in this spot with his power.
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal Predictions
- Fight Odds: Morono (+500) vs. Leal (-775)
Morono (24-11-0-1) is closing in on a decade in the UFC, but his results have dipped. Morono is 2-4 in his last six fights, but he has proven durable, as his last four fights have all gone the distance.
Leal (21-6) lost his UFC debut against Rinat Fakhretdinov by decision, but looked good. He landed 107 significant strikes and a single takedown in the loss. Morono averages 4.96 SLpM and 4.56 SApM. He rarely attempts takedowns. He’s a brawler, but he’s going to be in a tough spot against Leal.
Leal’s last four wins have all been by TKO/KO. Morono has been knocked out three times.
One of my parlay plays on Saturday will be Leal by TKO/KO.
Best Bet: Carlos Leal by TKO/KO
We currently have three fights on the early prelims. Mairon Santos will fight Francis Marshall. Santos will look to start his UFC career on a 2-0 run. Chris Gutierrez is back in action. He’s 2-2 since 2023. He’ll be fighting John Castaneda who is 4-3 in the UFC and coming off a decision loss against Daniel Marcos.
Djorden Santos will open up the night on the early prelims against Osman Diaz.
There are 12 fights scheduled for UFC 313 as long as everyone makes weight and there are no injuries.
UFC 313 Odds
Here are the latest UFC 313 odds for all of the scheduled fights:
- Alex Pereira (-120) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-110)
- Justin Gaethje (+130) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-160)
- Jalin Turner (+100) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-130)
- Amanda Lemos (+110) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-140)
- King Green (+335) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-460)
- Curtis Blaydes (-350) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+250)
- Joshua Van (-190) vs. Rei Tsuruya (+160)
- Brunno Ferreira (+120) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-150)
- Alex Morono (+500) vs. Carlos Leal (-775)
- Mairon Santos (-310) vs. Francis Marshall (+235)
- Chris Gutierrez (-115) vs. John Castaneda (-115)
- Djorden Santos (-190) vs. Osman Diaz (+160)
The biggest question at UFC 313 is whether or not Pereira can remain champion at LHW. Fiziev will look for some revenge against Gaethje and we have some interesting prospects in action. Sign-in to your Sports Hub account to access all of our expert UFC 313 predictions.
