UFC London Picks, Odds & Previews

Are you finalizing your UFC London picks for Saturday? The UFC is back in London for the 15th time and there’s a lot of British talent on the card, including Tom Aspinall, Paul Craig and Molly McCann.

UFC London (UFC Fight Night 224 and UFC on ESPN+ 82) will start at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday.

UFC London Preview

When: Saturday, July 22nd, 2023

Where: O2 Arena in London, England

Time: Prelims (12:00 PM ET) / Main Card (3:00 PM ET)

Watch: ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass

There are only six ranked fighters on the card. Those fighters are Aspinall (#5 HW), Marcin Tybura (#10 HW), Craig (#9 MW), Andre Muniz (#14 MW), Ketlen Vieira (#4 WBW) and Pannie Kianzad (#7 WBW).

The UFC London weigh-ins have concluded and every fighter made weight. There are 15 fights on the card and the last ten fights all feature a British fighter, which includes every main card fight.

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Expert UFC London Picks

After going 2-4 (-$267) in UFC Vegas 77 picks last week, I’m looking to bounce back and turn a profit this week with my UFC London picks. Let’s get into this week’s MMA plays, starting with the main event.

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Prediction

• Fight Odds: Aspinall (-460) vs. Tybura (+335)

Aspinall (12-3) suffered a knee injury in his last fight against Curtis Blaydes last July. Prior to the loss, he was 5-0 in the UFC, with four stoppage wins in the first round and one in the second round.

Aspinall has yet to fight in the third round in his career. Tybura (24-7) is 7-1 in the UFC since 2020 and he has won his last two fights against Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov by decision.

Tybura averages 3.55 SLpM, 3.31 SApM and 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. Aspinall is averaging 7.41 SLpM, 2.87 SApM and 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Aspinall has 100% takedown accuracy.

There’s little doubt that Aspinall is the more talented fighter. However, Tybura is a strong grappler and he could slow down Aspinall with leg kicks and control time against the cage. An Aspinall loss would be very surprising, but there are concerns about his long layoff and whether or not his knee is 100%.

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Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko Prediction

• Fight Odds: McCann (-205) vs. Stoliarenko (+165)

The co-main event features McCann (13-5) and Stoliarenko (10-7-2). McCann will have the crowd behind her, as she looks to bounce back from a loss against Erin Blanchfield (R1 Submission).

Prior to the loss, McCann was on a three-fight win streak, with two TKO/KO wins. McCann will look to be the aggressor in this fight and she lands a lot more strikes than her opponent (5.72 SLpM vs. 2.75 SLpM). She’ll need to deal with Stoliarenko’s size, who will have a 4” reach advantage and 3” height advantage.

Stoliarenko made weight, but she’s likely gassed, as she’s a featherweight. I see this fight going one of two ways. Stoliarenko (9 submission wins) could end the fight quickly by tapping her opponent out or McCann (6 TKO/KO wins) will survive early on and end up landing a knockout.

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Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam Prediction

• Fight Odds: Herbert (+140) vs. Ziam (-170)

Herbert (12-4-1) is 35 years old and only 2-3-1 in the UFC. Ziam (13-4) is 3-2 in the UFC and he’s coming off a win against Michal Figlak by decision. Ziam landed three takedowns in the win and his wrestling was improved. Ziam will want to utilize his wrestling early in this fight to gas his opponent.

Herbert has power (9 TKO/KO wins) and he knocked out Khama Worthy, but he has bad cardio and all of his UFC losses have been by stoppage. Herbert often has a big reach advantage, but he’ll only have a 2” reach advantage against Ziam (77” vs. 75”). Ziam has also never been knocked out in his career.

I expect Herbert to come out swinging for the fences early on, but if he can’t knock out Ziam, look for the favorite to establish himself and grind out a win utilizing his wrestling and defense. Ziam averages 2.52 SLpM (Herbert: 2.55 SLpM) and he has much better striking defense (66% vs. 45%).

Best Bet: Fares Ziam ML (-170)

Lerone Murphy vs. Joshua Culibao Prediction

• Fight Odds: Murphy (-135) vs. Culibao (+105)

Murphy (12-0-1) had a draw in his UFC debut, but has since won four consecutive fights. Two of those wins were by TKO/KO. Culibao (11-1-1) is 3-1-1 in the UFC and on a three-fight win streak.

Murphy has the striking and physicality edge. Murphy averages 3.58 SLpM and 2.64 SApM, while Culibao averages 2.96 SLpM and 3.13 SApM. Murphy’s biggest weakness is his takedown defense (43%) and he has been taken down ten times in his last two fights, but Culibao hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC.

Culibao is technical and has a high fight IQ, but can he deal with Murphy’s athleticism?

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Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez Prediction

• Fight Odds: Diakiese (+160) vs. Alvarez (-190)

Diakiese (16-6) will fight Alvarez (19-3) on the prelims. Alvarez is a submission specialist, with 16 wins by submission. He’s 4-2 in the UFC with all four of his wins coming by stoppage. He lost to Arman Tsarukyan (R2 TKO) last time out, but I can forgive him for that loss, as Tsarukyan is a legitimate LW contender.

Alvarez averages 3.44 SLpM and 3.68 SApM. Diakiese averages 2.73 SLpM, 2.63 SApM and 3.33 TDs per 15 minutes. Diakiese started his UFC career 3-0, but has since gone 4-6. He’s a durable fighter, as seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance. He was tapped out by Rafael Alves in 2021.

There’s a chance Diakiese lands a bunch of takedowns and controls Alvarez, but it’s more likely Alvarez will be able to lock in a submission. Alvarez needs to get back in the win column against a weaker fighter.

Best Bet: Joel Alvarez ML (-190)

Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmouz Prediction

• Fight Odds: Duncan (-155) vs. Ashmouz (+125)

Duncan (10-1) defeated Omar Morales (split decision) at UFC 286 in his promotional debut. Ashmouz (7-0) also made his debut at UFC 286 and he defeated Sam Patterson (R1 KO).

Both guys have power. Duncan has 7 TKO/KO wins and Ashmouz has 4 TKO/KO wins. In Duncan’s lone loss, he was knocked out by Viacheslav Borshchev on DWCS. This fight will have some fireworks and it could go either way. Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of my UFC London picks.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

UFC London Picks – Best Parlay Bet

There aren’t many big favorites on the UFC London fight card, but MMA fans will still be looking to win big with parlays. We all need more UFC London picks. Aspinall is the most popular parlay banker bet on Saturday despite returning from injury.

Here’s my best UFC London parlay bet for this weekend:

Aspinall ML + Alvarez ML + McCann/Stoliarenko Goes Distance (+195 Odds)

UFC London Odds

Here are the odds for every fight scheduled for UFC London on Saturday:

How to Access UFC London Picks at Sports Hub

We have lots of handicappers making UFC picks at Sports Hub. To access all of our UFC London picks, you need to open a free Sports Hub account. My picks are available under my profile (SWJ Sports). You can find all of the UFC picks by clicking “Games” and then selecting the “Fighting” category. Good luck on your UFC London picks and all your other action.