2023 NCAA Football Futures – Heisman Trophy Winner

The 2023 NCAA football season has begun, but it’s not too late to predict the Heisman Trophy winner, as sportsbooks will be updating the 2023 Heisman Trophy odds throughout the season.

QB Caleb Williams (USC) is favored to be the Heisman Trophy winner in 2023. Williams won the award in 2022, but only one player has ever won back-to-back Heisman Trophy awards (RB Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975). Williams is the only contender paying below +1000 odds and I’ll be fading the Trojans star QB.

2023 Heisman Trophy Winner Updates

We wanted to update our members with how the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner race is going.

(November 1st 2023): Caleb Williams opened as the Heisman Trophy winner favorite, but he’s now #11 in the market at +8000 odds. Michael Penix Jr. is now the favorite at +280 odds. Penix Jr. was paying +1600 at the start of the college football season. Penix Jr. has completed 68.8% of his passes for 2,945 yards, 24 TDs and 6 INTs. He’s seventh in QB rating (176.0) and the Huskies are undefeated.

There are still several other contenders that could end up being the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. There are five other players priced at +1000 or lower. Those players are J.J. McCarthy (+300), Jayden Daniels (+400), Bo Nix (+600), Jordan Travis (+800) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (+1000). Daniels is offering value at his Heisman Trophy odds. Daniels leads CFB in QB rating (204.3). He has 25 passing TDs and 3 INTs.

Top Contenders to Be Heisman Trophy Winners in 2023

There are six contenders with 2023 Heisman Trophy winner odds of +1500 or below.

• QB Caleb Williams (USC) +450

2022 Stats: 4,537 Passing Yards for 42 TDs and 5 INTs / 382 Rushing Yards and 10 TDs

Williams opened the season going 18/25 for 278 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. Maintaining that pace will be difficult, as the Pac-12 is strong. His leading WR from last season (Jordan Addison) is gone, but there’s lots of talent at the skill positions. He’s unlikely to throw 40+ passing TDs or rush for 10+ TDs in 2023.

• QB Jayden Daniels (LSU) +1100

2022 Stats: 2,913 Passing Yards for 17 TDs and 3 INTs / 885 Rushing Yards and 11 TDs

Daniels is a dual-threat QB and the Tigers are expected to take a step forward in the SEC. He’s going to likely lead LSU in carries, rushing yards, and rushing TDs again. WR Malik Nabers (1,017 receiving yards in 2022) is back. If LSU makes the College Football Playoffs, Daniels will contend for the Heisman.

• QB Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) +1200

2022 Stats: 3,701 Passing Yards for 38 TDs and 12 INTs / 129 Rushing Yards and 1 TD

Hartman transferred to the Fighting Irish for this season. The former Wake Forest star QB will look to push the Irish into the CFP. He went 19/23 for 251 yards, 4 TDs, and 0 INTs in his first game against Navy. He’ll have a chance to pad his stats over the next few weeks against weaker opponents. 

• QB Cade Klubnik (Clemson) +1400

2022 Stats: 697 Passing Yards for 2 TDs and 3 INTs / 139 Rushing Yards and 2 TDs

Klubnik started two games for Clemson last season. He threw for 599 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs in two starts last season. With Garrett Riley taking over as offensive coordinator, the Tigers will have a new offense, but Clemson has a tough strength of schedule. Klubnik will need to avoid turnovers as well to contend.

• QB Jordan Travis (Florida State) +1400

2022 Stats: 3,214 Passing Yards for 24 TDs and 5 INTs / 417 Rushing Yards and 7 TDs

Travis and the Seminoles open up their season against LSU on Sunday. The primetime game on ABC will give us a great look at FSU, who are expected to take a leap forward this year. If Travis can improve upon his accuracy and put up around 4,000 passing yards, he could be the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner.

• QB Quinn Ewers (Texas) +1500

2022 Stats: 2,177 Passing Yards for 15 TDs and 6 INTs / -52 Rushing Yards and 1 TD

Ewers isn’t going to run past many defenders. He’s also unlikely to be the Heisman Trophy winner. Ewers missed three games last season due to injury. He only threw for 300+ passing yards twice and had 3+ passing TDs twice in 2022. That’s not going to get it done. Don’t buy into the Ewers hype.

Longshots to Be Heisman Trophy Winner in 2023

There have been numerous long shots to be named the Heisman Trophy winner in recent years. Here are a few Heisman Trophy winner longshots that will move up the odds board as the season progresses.

• QB Kyle McCord (Ohio State) +2200

2022 Stats: 190 Passing Yards for 1 TD and 0 INTs / 4 Rushing Yards

McCord is the starting QB for OSU and he was high school teammates with WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who is the best receiver in NCAAF. That should make McCord more comfortable. In limited mop-up duty, he looked excellent last season, but will that translate into him handling a full season in the Big Ten?

• RB Blake Corum (Michigan) +2800

2022 Stats: 1,463 Rushing Yards and 18 TDs

Corum is coming back for his senior year at Michigan. A RB hasn’t been the Heisman Trophy winner in the last seven years. RB Derrick Henry won the award in 2015. Corum ranked in the top five in rushing TDs and was 11th in rushing yards. Corum had 100+ rushing yards in eight consecutive games in 2022.

• QB Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) +4000

2022 Stats: 3,168 Passing Yards for 25 TDs and 6 INTs / 315 Rushing Yards and 6 TDs

Gabriel had a strong first season for the Sooners after transferring from UCF. WR Marvin Mims is gone, but the Sooners should be a better overall team this season. OSU has a weak strength of schedule and only plays two teams that are ranked before the season starts (Texas and TCU).

Who Will Be the 2023 Heisman Trophy Winner?

One of the best college football betting tips is to follow the trends. QBs have been the Heisman Trophy winner in 11 of the last 13 years. Therefore, it’s a good idea to target at least one QB in 2023.

I’m betting on Hartman and Corum to be named the Heisman Trophy winner in 2023.

Hartman and the Fighting Irish have a relatively easy schedule. Games against Ohio State and Clemson will be tough, but the game against USC should be a shootout where Hartman can sling the football.

I’m also backing Corum to upset the 2023 Heisman Trophy odds. Corum finished seventh in Heisman voting last season and out of the players that finished ahead of him in voting, only the winner (Williams) is playing college football this season. If Corum can even improve his rushing numbers slightly, he’ll be a Heisman Trophy finalist this year and could win the award if he’s healthy for every game.

Best Bets: QB Sam Hartman (+1400) and RB Blake Corum (+2800)

2023 Heisman Trophy Odds

Past Heisman Trophy Winners

Here are the last ten Heisman Trophy winners with off-season odds listed in brackets:

In the last seven years alone, we’ve seen two players priced at +10000 during the offseason go on to win the Heisman Trophy award. The offseason top contenders rarely end up as Heisman Trophy winners.

Heisman Trophy Betting Trends

Here are some Heisman Trophy betting trends to help you identify the top contenders:

• QB Dominance: Dating back to 2000, QBs have been named the Heisman Trophy winner in 19 of 23 years. Three RBs and one WR won during that stretch, but Reggie Bush’s win was vacated.

• Avoid Defensive Players: Only one player that primarily played defense has ever won the award and that was Charles Woodson in 1997, but he also played a bit of WR that year.

• Team Success: Since the College Football Playoffs were implemented (2014-15 season), the Heisman Trophy winner has played in the CFP in seven of nine years.

• Fade Freshmen: Only two freshmen have ever been named the Heisman Trophy winner. The only two Heisman Trophy winners as freshmen are Johnny Manziel (2012) and Winston (2013).

Heisman Trophy FAQ