European Soccer Weekly Report – Goal Betting Trends

We’re halfway through the European soccer season now and so it seems like an appropriate time to analyze overall goal betting trends so far.

It’s been a couple of weeks since my last European soccer report, but Sports Hub is back this week to provide you with all the latest updates surrounding the major soccer leagues across Europe. 

All of the top five Euro leagues are in action this weekend as the likes of Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga return to action from their winter breaks. That means it’s perfect timing for you to find out the most recent tendencies, including goal betting trends. 

European Soccer Weekly Report – Results & Key Stats 

In the last edition of my weekly soccer report, we recapped all of the most recent results across the Premier League, Ligue 1, the Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. 

Leagues such as Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga have been on winter break now since before Christmas. There are no further results to update you on for those two divisions, but their games get back underway this weekend. That’s why it’s a good idea to take note of the latest goal betting trends. 

Nevertheless, we still have Serie A and La Liga results to update you on. You can check out our Premier League Matchweek 21 Predictions here, too, which also includes a quick round up of the results during Matchday 20. 

Ligue 1 Update

Champions Paris Saint-Germain, unsurprisingly, lead the way through 17 games. They sit five points ahead of a Nice side that have impressed under Italian coach Francesco Farioli so far this term. 

Monaco and Brest currently occupy places inside the top-four, whilst Lille, Marseille, Lens and Strasbourg will all by vying to improve their positions in 2024. Those four teams are fighting for European football next season. 

At the other end of the standings, it’s Clermont Foot who currently sit rock bottom. Lorient and Toulouse complete the bottom-three and all three sides have just two wins to their name thus far. French giants Lyon have overcome their woes at the start of the campaign, but still remain just two points ahead of 16th-placed Toulouse. 

Key Betting Trends: 

• PSG have suffered just one league defeat thus far and have scored the most goals in the division (42)
• Nice have lost just two games in Ligue 1 so far this season and have the best defensive record in the division, conceding nine goals
• PSG are currently on a ten-game unbeaten streak in Ligue 1
• Brest are unbeaten across their last six league outings, winning five in the process
• Clermont have lost the most games in the division (10)
• Lorient have conceded the highest number of goals so far (35)
• Rennes have the highest both teams to score ratio (65%), Nice have the lowest ratio (29%)
• PSG have the highest over 2.5 goals ratio in Ligue 1 (71%), whilst Nice have the lowest (18%)

Bundesliga Update

The German top-flight is practically halfway through their 34 league games at the moment with most teams having played 16 matches each. Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen have been the most impressive team this season and currently sit top of the pile and remain unbeaten. 

Champions Bayern Munich are just one spot behind and have a game in hand over Leverkusen. They can shorten the gap to just a single point if they are victorious in their additional matchup. Stuttgart are having an impressive campaign, too, and currently sit in third-place. It’s been a disappointing season for Borussia Dortmund thus far as they are down in fifth, 15 points behind the league leaders and six off the top-four. 

Darmstadt, Köln and Mainz have been the strugglers at this stage of the season and they all sit in the bottom-three, having picked up just ten points each. Union Berlin have seen a small upturn in form as they occupy 15th-place. You can find the key betting trends, including goal betting trends below. 

Key Betting Trends: 

• Leverkusen are the only team left yet to suffer a league loss during the 2023/24 campaign and they boast the best defensive record, too, conceding just 12 goals
• Bayern have lost just one of their 15 Bundesliga games and have scored the most goals across the division (49)
• Darmstadt have failed to win any of their last nine league matches, picking up just three points in the process
• Union Berlin, Köln and Mainz have lost the most games in the division (10)
• Darmstadt have conceded the most goals (41)
• Hoffenheim have the highest both teams to score ratio (94%), whilst Union Berlin have the lowest (40%)
• Borussia Mönchengladbach have the highest over 2.5 goals ratio (94%), Bayern sit at 93%
• Köln have the lowest over 2.5 goals ratio across the German top-flight (38%)
• Hoffenheim have seen the highest ratio for games to exceed over 3.5 goals (69%), whilst Köln have the lowest at just 19%

Serie A:

Round 18

• Napoli 0-0 Monza
• Fiorentina 1-0 Torino 
• Lazio 3-1 Frosinone 
• Genoa 1-1 Inter 
• Atalanta 1-0 Lecce 
• Udinese 3-0 Bologna 
• Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
• Verona 0-1 Salernitana 
• Milan 1-0 Sassuolo
• Juventus 1-0 Roma 

Key Stats: 

• 20% of matches from Round 18 saw both teams score in Serie A 
• 20% of matches from Round 18 saw over 2.5 goals in Serie A
• 60% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Round 18
• 30% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Round 18
• 10% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Round 18

Round 19

• Bologna 1-1 Genoa
• Inter 2-1 Verona 
• Frosinone 2-3 Monza
• Lecce 1-1 Cagliari
• Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina 
• Empoli 0-3 Milan
• Udinese 1-2 Lazio
• Torino 3-0 Napoli 
• Salernitana 1-2 Juventus
• Roma 1-1 Atalanta

Key Stats: 

• 70% of matches from Round 19 saw both teams score in Serie A 
• 60% of matches from Round 19 saw over 2.5 goals in Serie A
• Inter and Juventus have both lost just one league game this term
• Juventus are unbeaten across their last 14 matches, winning 11 in the process
• Inter haven’t lost a league match over their past 13 outings
• Salernitana and Udinese have just two league wins each this season (lowest in Serie A)
• 30% of Serie A matches ended in home wins during Round 19
• 30% of Serie A matches ended in draws during Round 19
• 40% of Serie A matches ended in away wins during Round 19

La Liga: 

Round 19

• Getafe 0-2 Rayo Vallecano 
• Real Sociedad 1-1 Alaves 
• Valencia 3-1 Villarreal 
• Granada 2-0 Cadiz 
• Real Madrid 1-0 Mallorca
• Celta Vigo 2-1 Real Betis
• Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid 
• Osasuna 1-0 Almería 
• Sevilla 0-2 Athletic Bilbao 
• Las Palmas 1-2 Barcelona

Key Stats:

• 50% of La Liga matches saw both teams score during Round 19
• 40% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Round 19
• 20% of matches during Round 19 saw over 3.5 La Liga goals
• Real Madrid and Girona sit atop the standings, level on 48 points each
• Real Madrid haven’t lost any of their last 13 La Liga outings
• Girona are unbeaten across their last 11 in the league, winning nine in the process
• Almeria are the only team left in La Liga yet to record a win
• 60% of La Liga games ended in home wins during Round 19
• 10% of La Liga games ended in draws during Round 19
• 30% of La Liga games ended in away wins during Round 19

European Soccer Weekly Report – Goal Betting Trends

Betting on totals is a very common form of wagering on European soccer. Wagering on the over/under for total goals is the usual method. Many bettors like to predict ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ in the ‘Both Teams To Score’ market as well. Therefore, I am always analyzing the goal betting trends each week. Now seems a good time to take a look at the overall goal betting trends across the top Euro soccer leagues. 

• La Liga total goals – 507 (Average 25.35 per team, 2.67 per game)
• Serie A total goals – 475 (Average 23.75 per team, 2.5 per game)
• Ligue 1 total goals – 382 (Average 21.22 per team, 2.5 per game)
• Bundesliga total goals – 480 (Average 26.67 per team, 3.36 per game)

We have known now for some time that the Bundesliga is an incredibly high-scoring league. With 480 goals scored in total so far, at an average of 26.67 goals per team, the German top-flight leads the charts. La Liga’s total goals are higher due to there being more teams in the division, as well as more total fixtures being played. 

The Bundesliga has also averaged the most goals per game this season (3.36 per game). Of course, the bookmakers know this as well and have therefore set their over/under lines higher than the usual 2.5 line. 

Serie A and Ligue 1 Unders have been very common this term and that aligns with the goal-scoring statistics so far. They have both averaged just 2.5 goals per game this term. I have been riding the Ligue 1 Unders trend now for some time and that will likely continue after the winter break. 

The Italian top-flight has been pretty inconsistent this season in terms of goals. Serie A Overs have looked more common at points. For example, Round 13 (60%), Round 14 (70%), Round 16 (50%) and Round 19 (60%) all saw high ratios for over 2.5 goals. However, Round 15 (40%), Round 17 (30%) and Round 18 (20%) resulted in low ratios for over 2.5 goals. Without a clear overall league trend, I would suggest targeting specific teams when it comes to the totals markets. 

La Liga has also been very up and down when it comes to the goals market. Each game averages 2.67 goals, the second highest out of the four leagues in question. However, we have had many weeks where over 2.5 goals have failed to land. For example, Round 16 (30%), Round 17 (30%) and Round 19 (40%). Again, the best method is to look at each teams’ goals stats individually. 

Euro Soccer Betting Trends – La Liga Totals Update

The most recent edition of my European soccer report focused on Serie A and La Liga betting trends. One of those trends highlighted that La Liga Unders were a consistent tendency and that has continued after another set of fixtures. Just 40% of La Liga matches saw over 2.5 goals during Round 19, whilst only 20% of games had over 3.5 goals. 

Heeding to my earlier advice of targeting each individual team when it comes to goal betting trends, I will now take you through the statistics. The stats are also broken down into home and away games.  

• Villarreal have the highest over 2.5 goals ratio in La Liga (74%)
• Girona, Almeria and Atletico Madrid all have high over 2.5 goals ratios too (68%)
• Cadiz, Mallorca, Alaves and Las Palmas have the lowest over 2.5 goals ratios in the division (26%)
• Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis also have low ratios for over 2.5 goals (32%)
• Villarreal have the highest home over 2.5 goals ratio (90%)
• Atletico Madrid (80%), Girona (70%) and Athletic Bilbao (70%) also have high over 2.5 goals ratios for home matches 
• Osasuna have the lowest home over 2.5 goals ratio in the league (20%)
• Getafe, Real Betis, Alaves and Mallorca also have low over 2.5 goals ratios for home matches (22%)
• Almeria and Getafe have the highest over 2.5 goals ratios for road matches (70%)
• That is closely followed by Girona and Osasuna for away games (67%)
• Las Palmas, Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano all have the lowest over 2.5 goals ratios in La Liga for away games (20%)
• Athletic Bilbao often see their road matches have low-scoring games with just 22% hitting over 2.5 goals

Teams such as Villarreal, Atletico Madrid and Girona are the ones you need to consider when it comes to La Liga Overs, especially when they are playing at home. Meanwhile, Almeria could be a good bet if they are playing away. 

In terms of La Liga Unders, bettors should focus on sides like Real Betis, Mallorca and Alaves, particularly when they are playing at home. However, Las Palmas, Cadiz and Rayo Vallecano are the most common teams for Unders when it comes to road matches. 

Bettors should consider these goal betting trends when making their totals bets. As always, make sure you analyze each matchup before making your picks. However, these statistics will be key to help you find an edge over the bookmaker!