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The National Football League (NFL) is the biggest source of sports betting in the United States. More than 50 million adults wagered about $16 billion combined on Super Bowl LVII. This handle is almost twice the amount bet on Super Bowl LVI. And that’s not even including Super Bowl futures wagers.
NFL Super Bowl Futures Betting
It’s not out of the question to expect even more bet on next year’s Super Bowl with the amount of states opening sportsbooks. All this exposure has led to a drastic increasing interest from the general public.
While there’s plenty of gameday betting options for the Super Bowl, it’s also possible to wager on the game at any point during the year. In fact, betting lines to win Super Bowl LVIII opened the day after the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII. These odds, of course, change throughout the year based on team transactions and wins/losses.
Here’s a look at current Super Bowl LVIII odds and some tips to placing futures bets on the big game.
Super Bowl LVIII Futures Odds
Here are the top 10 in the current odds for teams to win Super Bowl LVIII (as of April 25, 2023):
- Kansas City Chiefs +650
- San Francisco 49ers +900
- Buffalo Bills +900
- Philadelphia Eagles +900
- Cincinnati Bengals +1000
- New York Jets +1400
- Dallas Cowboys +1600
- Los Angeles Chargers +2500
- Detroit Lions +2500
- Miami Dolphins +3000
Follow Free Agency
There are many important things to check out when you’re thinking of wagering on the Super Bowl, especially before the start of the season. This starts with tracking what teams are doing in free agency.
Generally speaking, the teams that went the furthest in the playoffs the prior year will have the shortest odds to win the next year’s Super Bowl.
This runs true with Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Buffalo listed above. But there will always be surprising teams with relatively short odds because of the pre-draft moves they made.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS
Take a look at the New York Jets’ current odds of +1400. The Jets opened with +2800 odds to win the Super Bowl. But it’s been long expected that they’ll work out a trade with the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers.
Whether or not you believe that makes them a contender is irrelevant. It’s clear the general public – and bookmakers – believe the team is now a contender to win the Super Bowl. The Jets also signed receivers Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard while also shoring up their defense.
It’s important to take a look at what teams did to address their weaknesses in free agency. Super Bowl futures can be won and lost via free agency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Joe Burrow. But they haven’t given him much protection in recent years with the offensive line being a major issue. Cincinnati has come close to winning a title in the last two years and could be poised to make a run this year. Did they finally get Burrow sufficient protection with the signing of four-time Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown?
NFL Draft Makes a Difference on Super Bowl Futures
The NFL Draft, more than any other professional sports league, provides teams with a chance to immediately upgrade their roster.
Players jump right into the league and, in some cases, are major contributors. MLB, NHL, and NBA draft picks can take several years in some cases to make an impact.
Let’s take a look ahead to this year’s 2023 NFL draft, for instance. Four quarterbacks could be taken with the first 10 picks. So many game changers could dramatically transform the Super Bowl odds – and expectations – for those teams. The Carolina Panthers acquired the first overall pick from the Chicago Bears and will likely see their odds improve from +5500. Especially if they can continue to build around their new franchise QB.
Don’t Expect a Repeat
The New England Patriots are the only team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the 21st century.
It was a lot more common earlier, with both the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys winning back-to-back Super Bowls in the 1990s. But it has been harder to do in a league with more parity than ever. Other than New England, Kansas City is the only team to make back-to-back Super Bowls since Seattle in 2015.
So, you might expect the Chiefs to be a dynasty with many more Super Bowls to come. However, it’s best to fade the team winning another Super Bowl this year, especially with short +600 odds.
There’s simply too many good teams and quarterbacks due to win a title that it’ll be tough for Mahomes and the Chiefs to repeat. Consider fading a repeat when making your 2023 Super Bowl futures.
Conference Historical Figures Associated With Super Bowl Futures
Some betting stats and trends are ultimately useless when it comes down to the game being played. When they hit the field, “any given Sunday” goes when it’s the biggest game, between two hungry teams.
But it can’t hurt to know all of the available information, right?
Super Bowl LVIII will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada, on February 11th. Which is noteworthy. When the Super Bowl is played in February, AFC teams have a record of 12-8, suggesting there may be a trend there. *Note: we checked with the writer of this article to further backup the relevance of this stat; but was unavailable for comment. Please comment in the section below with your thoughts.
However, we must note that the Super Bowl has been in February every year since 2004. With the addition of Week 18, the big game will be played in February for the foreseeable future.
Playing in Domes & Super Bowl Futures
It’s also worth checking out the venue for the upcoming Super Bowl.
Weather, in open-air stadiums, can be an important factor in the Super Bowl. This is largely due to some teams being more accustomed to playing in unfavorable conditions. Or conversely, used to playing in great conditions.
However, it’s generally an even playing field with the Super Bowl contested in a dome – or at least that’s what you’d think.
Surprisingly, NFC teams have a major advantage when the Super Bowl is played in an indoor, climate-controlled setting. NFC teams are 16-6 when the Super Bowl is played indoors. Super Bowl LVIII will be played at Allegiant Stadium, which is a fully enclosed, climate-controlled dome.
Half-Time Show Performers
Obviously, this stat has no impact on the actual game, but it’s an interesting one nonetheless.
When a woman is the prime performer in the Super Bowl halftime show, the AFC is 5-1. This is dating back to Super Bowl 46. Kansas City is 2-0 in the Super Bowl when a woman leads the performance.
The NFL hasn’t announced the lineup for the Super Bowl LVIII half-time show yet. But, if a woman is the headline act it might be worth betting the Chiefs or another AFC team.
Regularly Check Super Bowl Futures Odds
As mentioned, Super Bowl futures betting odds are updated constantly throughout the season. A team that is favored early in the offseason might get off to a terrible start. Their high odds to win that year’s Super Bowl are guaranteed to increase. Conversely, a major underdog may start the year 4-0 and get a significant betting odds boost.
By regularly checking Super Bowl futures odds, you can find better value in a team you might like or feel is playing well enough to warrant a wager.
For example, imagine the Chiefs get off to an 0-2 start next season, and their odds drop to +1250. They still have a healthy Mahomes and a winning pedigree, so you feel they’ll rebound. A +1250 wager on the Chiefs, even at 0-2, is a more attractive betting option than the current +600.
