UFC 301 Predictions, Odds and Preview

Get our expert UFC 301 predictions for Saturday’s fight card in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. After UFC 300, this pay-per-view (PPV) card feels lackluster, but there’s still a title fight at flyweight.

Alexandre Pantoja will fight Steve Erceg in the main event for the flyweight title. Jose Aldo retired in 2022, but he’ll fight out the final fight in his UFC contract in the co-main event against Jonathan Martinez.

If everyone makes weight on Friday, there are 14 fights scheduled for Saturday.

We have winning UFC 301 predictions that you can access by becoming a Sports Hub member.

UFC 301 Preview

When: Saturday, May 4th 2024

Where: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Start Time: 6:00 PM ET (Early Prelims) / 8:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: UFC Fight Pass, ESPN, ESPN+ and PPV

There are a lot of fights to analyze for our UFC 301 predictions on Saturday night.

The main event doesn’t make a lot of sense and I’m surprised Erceg is getting a title shot. There were more deserving contenders, but Erceg has looked great since joining the UFC last year.

There are seven ranked fighters on the UFC 301 card. Those include Erceg (#10 FLW), Martinez (#12 BW), Anthony Smith (#10 LHW), Vitor Petrino (#15 LHW), Paul Craig (#13 MW) and Caio Borralho (#14 MW) on the main card. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (#13 WSW) is the lone ranked fighter on the prelims.

Let’s jump into our expert UFC 301 predictions.

Expert UFC 301 Predictions

To access all of our UFC 301 predictions, you’ll need to open a Sports Hub account.

All of my UFC 301 predictions will be available on my profile page (SWJ Sports), but we have numerous UFC handicappers that release plays for every event on the calendar throughout the year.

I went 11-6 (+$445) at UFC 300 and will look to perform even better with my UFC 301 predictions.

Don’t forget to explore our guide on “how to bet on fighting” for expert tips and strategies.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

• Fight Odds: Pantoja (-190) vs. Erceg (+150)

Pantoja (27-5) is 34 years old and could start slowing down at any time. Erceg (12-1) is 3-0 in the UFC and he’s coming off a KO win against Matt Schnell, but this will be his toughest test yet.

Pantoja will want to win the grappling battle. He averages 2.20 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes, while Erceg averages 1.69 TDs per 15 minutes. Pantoja averages 4.32 SLpM and 3.90 SApM, while Erceg averages 4.57 SLpM and 3.64 SApM. Neither fighter has a lot of power, but both can land submissions.

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Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo Prediction

• Fight Odds: Martinez (-155) vs. Aldo (+125)

Aldo (31-8) will be fighting in Brazil with the UFC for the last time most likely on Saturday. Is he looking to finish his contract and move on or will he be motivated to win? Aldo lost his last fight to Merab Dvalishvili in August 2022. Martinez (19-4) is on a six-fight win streak and hasn’t lost in over three years.

This should be a striking battle. Martinez averages 4.64 SLpM and 3.76 SApM, while Aldo averages 3.57 SLpM and 3.74 SApM. Aldo has 17 TKO/KO wins and Martinez has nine TKO/KO wins. Aldo has been knocked out four times, while Martinez has only been knocked out once in his career.

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Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction

• Fight Odds: Smith (+390) vs. Petrino (-565)

This is a mismatch. Smith (37-19) is a veteran, but he is 1-3 since 2022 and two of those losses were by TKO/KO. Smith has been knocked out 11 times in his career. Petrino (11-0) is 4-0 in the UFC.

Petrino defeated Tyson Pedro in March and will already be back in the cage. Petrino is only 26 years old, but if he wants to keep moving up the LHW rankings, he needs to finish opponents. Smith averages 3.21 SLpM and 4.47 SApM, while Petrino averages 2.74 SLpM, 2.49 SApM and 3.86 TDs per 15 minutes.

Petrino will look to take this fight to the ground and look for a knockout finish. Smith has 48% TD defense and this will be a long night for the veteran. I’m backing Petrino by TKO/KO for my UFC 301 predictions.

Best Bet: Vitor Petrino by TKO/KO

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria Prediction

• Fight Odds: Pereira (-625) vs. Potieria (+455)

Pereira (30-11-0-2) should cruise to a win against Potieria (20-5). Pereira is on a seven-fight win streak, but he only has three stoppage wins during the win streak. Potieria is 2-3 since joining the UFC.

Pereira averages 5.15 SLpM and 3.71 SApM, plus he can threaten takedowns (1.55 TDs per 15 minutes), as Potieria has weak TD defense (57%). Potieria averages 5.19 SLpM and 5.01 SApM. Pereira has won his last two fights in the opening round. Potieria has been knocked out four times in his career.

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Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho Prediction

• Fight Odds: Craig (+395) vs. Borralho (-595)

Craig (17-7-1) is on a 1-3 run in his last four fights and he has been stopped in his last two losses. He has a tough fight against Borralho (15-1-0-1) who is 5-0 in the UFC and hasn’t lost since 2015.

Borralho averages 2.73 SLpM, 1.98 SApM and 2.16 TDs per 15 minutes. Craig is averaging 2.42 SLpM, 2.86 SApM and 1.76 TDs per 15 minutes in the UFC. Borralho has gone the distance in four of his five UFC fights. Craig has been knocked out four times. Can Borralho get his first TKO/KO win in the UFC?

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Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Silva Prediction

• Fight Odds: Shore (+140) vs. Silva (-170)

This is an exciting fight. Silva (16-3-1) lost his UFC debut to Bill Algeo, but he has since gone 4-0, with all of the wins coming by stoppage. Shore (17-1) is 6-1 in the UFC, with his lone loss against Ricky Simon.

Shore averages 3.84 SLpM, 2.20 SApM and 3.42 TDs per 15 minutes. Silva averages 3.32 SLpM, 2.62 SApM and 3.40 TDs per 15 minutes. Silva has the striking edge, but Shore is the better wrestler. If this fight escapes the opening round, I give Shore the edge due to his excellent cardio.

I’m backing Shore as an underdog for my UFC 301 predictions.

Best Bet: Jack Shore ML

Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction

• Fight Odds: Brener (+205) vs. Orolbai (-250)

Brener (16-3) and Orolbai (12-1-1) are both finishers. Brener has 14 stoppage wins and Orolbai has 11 stoppage wins. Brener is 3-0 in the UFC and Orolbai is 1-0 in the UFC. This will be an exciting fight.

Orolbai is an excellent wrestler, but Brener has 11 submission wins and is dangerous on the ground. He wasn’t an active striker in his UFC debut, but he has power. Brener averages 4.64 SLpM and 5.05 SApM. He eats a lot of strikes. Sign-up to Sports Hub to find out who I’m picking for my UFC 301 predictions.

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Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey Prediction

• Fight Odds: Ruffy (-200) vs. Mullarkey (+160)

Ruffy (9-1) will be making his UFC debut. He has won all nine of his fights by TKO/KO. Mullarkey (17-7) is 5-5 in the UFC. He went 2-2 last year, but his two losses were by knockout. Mullarkey has been knocked out five times in his career. Mullarkey is also known for his power (10 TKO/KO wins).

Mullarkey averages 4.46 SLpM, 4.49 SApM and 2.42 TDs per 15 minutes. Betting on UFC debutants is a tough proposition. Both of these guys have power. Join Sports Hub to view all of my UFC 301 predictions.

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Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction

• Fight Odds: Costa (-140) vs. Borjas (+110)

Costa (13-4) is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a loss against Erceg. Borjas (9-2) lost his UFC debut to Joshua Van. Costas has the edge in striking and grappling, but this will be a close fight.

Costa averages 3.75 SLpM and 3.61 SApM, while Borjas averages 5.40 SLpM and 6.63 SApM. Borjas is an active striker and has power (8 TKO/KO wins). Costa has four TKO/KO wins and six submission wins. This is the opening fight on the card and will set the tone for the night.

I’m backing Costa to win for my UFC 301 predictions at a great price.

Best Bet: Alessandro Costa ML

UFC 301 Odds

Here are the UFC 301 odds for every fight on the card this weekend:

• Alexandre Pantoja (-190) vs. Steve Erceg (+150)
• Jonathan Martinez (-155) vs. Jose Aldo (+125)
• Anthony Smith (+390) vs. Vitor Petrino (-565)
• Michel Pereira (-625) vs. Ihor Potieria (+455)
• Paul Craig (+395) vs. Caio Borralho (-595)
• Jack Shore (+140) vs. Joanderson Silva (-170)
• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-410)
• Elves Brener (+205) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
• Jean Silva (-125) vs. William Gomis (-105)
• Joaquim Silva (+155) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)
• Mauricio Ruffy (-200) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+160)
• Dione Barbosa (-230) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+190)
• Ismael Bonfim (-540) vs. Vinc Pichel (+365)
• Alessandro Costa (-140) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

How to Access UFC 301 Predictions

We have the best UFC 301 predictions if you’re looking to make money.

In order to access all of our UFC 301 predictions, you need to become a Sports Hub member. My picks will be available on my profile page (SWJ Sports). I’ll have over a dozen UFC 301 predictions.

This isn’t the best PPV card, but there are still going to be some great fights. Can Pantoja defend his title? Will Aldo show up ready to fight? Will any of the big underdogs pull off a huge upset? Make sure you tune in on Saturday to watch the fight card, which will be coming to us live from Brazil.