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Get our expert UFC 307 predictions. We analyze the UFC 307 odds to identify the best value. There are two UFC Championship fights on the card, which will be hosted at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.
Alex Pereira will fight Khalil Rountree Jr. for the light heavyweight title in the main event. In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington will put her women’s bantamweight title on the line against Julianna Pena.
There are three more fights with ranked fighters on the main card. Jose Aldo will fight Mario Bautista, Ketlan Vieira will fight Kayla Harrison and Roman Dolidze will fight Kevin Holland.
UFC 307 Preview
- When: Saturday, October 5th 2024
- Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
- Time: 6:30 PM ET (Early Prelims) / 8:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)
- Watch: UFC Fight Pass, ESPN, ESPN+ and Pay-Per-View
The featured prelim fight is between Stephen Thompson and Joaquin Buckley. Buckley has been on a roll the last couple years, but Wonderboy is a capable veteran that can pull off the upset.
Speaking of veterans, the early prelims features several. Ovince Saint Preux is back from an injury and he’ll fight Ryan Spann. Tim Means is in action against Court McGee, but both have been struggling.
There are definitely some intriguing fights, but there are quite a few big favorites. Harrison will likely be in line to get a title shot in her next fight if she’s able to handle Vieira. She’s the biggest favorite on the card.
Expert UFC 307 Predictions
There are 12 fights scheduled for UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, so let’s hope everyone makes weight and there are no late withdrawals. We’ll have expert UFC 307 predictions for all of the fights.
Become a Sports Hub member to access UFC 307 predictions from numerous handicappers. You can find all of my UFC 307 picks under my profile (SWJ Sports) when signed into your account.
With quite a few big favorites, we’ll need to target some of the alternate markets this weekend. There are some live underdogs, though. We’ll now jump into our fight previews for UFC 307.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Predictions
- Fight Odds: Pereira (-460) vs. Rountree Jr. (+360)
Pereira (11-2) is on a 4-0 run after losing to Israel Adesanya (KO in R2) last year. He has been active and he has won by TKO/KO in his last three outings. Rountree Jr. (13-5-0-1) is 5-0 (4 TKO/KO) in his last five.
This will be a striking brawl. Pereira averages 5.23 SLpM and 3.51 SApM (79” reach), while Rountree Jr. averages 3.84 SLpM and 4.18 SApM (76” reach). Both fighters are powerful knockout specialists.
Does Rountree Jr. stand a chance? With his power, he’ll always have a shot.
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Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena Predictions
- Fight Odds: Pennington (-165) vs. Pena (+135)
The co-main event is expected to be a close fight. Pennington (16-8) is on a 6-0 run dating back to 2000. Pena (11-5) hasn’t fought since losing to Amanda Nunes in July 2022. This is a tough fight to jump back into after a long layoff, but Pena could upset her opponent. Pennington could get in trouble on the ground.
Pena averages 1.94 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes and Pennington has 63% takedown defense (TDD). Pennington averages 4.14 SLpM and 3.29 SApM, but she has been more active in recent fights.
If Pena is good to go, this will be a great co-main event for fans.
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista Predictions
- Fight Odds: Aldo (+120) vs. Bautista (-140)
Aldo (32-8) is 4-1 in his last five fights, with all of them going the distance. Bautista (14-2) is 8-2 in the UFC and he has won six consecutive fights. He hasn’t lost since 2021 against Trevin Jones (TKO).
Bautista averages 5.69 SLpM, 3.99 SApM and 2.25 TDs per 15 minutes. Aldo averages 3.63 SLpM and 3.73 SApM. Aldo has 91% TDD and will have a great shot at winning if he can remain upright.
I’m betting on Aldo at plus money for my UFC 307 predictions.
Best Bet: Jose Aldo ML
Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison Predictions
- Fight Odds: Vieira (+540) vs. Harrison (-1035)
Are you betting against Harrison (17-1)? She’s unproven in the UFC and lost to Larissa Pacheco three fights ago, but she dominated Holly Holm in her UFC debut (Won by submission in R2).
Vieira (14-3) lost to Pennington last year, but bounced back by defeating Pannie Kinazad. Her last six fights have gone the distance and she has only been stopped once (TKO). Viera averages 3.04 SLpM and 3.92 SApM, while Harrison averages 7.52 SLpM and 0.29 SApM.
Harrison will win this fight, but you need to view my profile (SWJ Sports) to see how I’m betting this fight.
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland Predictions
- Fight Odds: Dolidze (+126) vs. Holland (-146)
Dolidze (13-3) defeated Anthony Smith last time out, but had lost his prior two fights. Holland (26-11-0-1) is coming off a win against Michal Oleksiejczuk, but had also lost his two fights before the win.
Holland averages 4.25 SLpM and 3.20 SApM, plus he has a huge 81” reach. Dolidze has a 76” reach, while averaging 3.13 SLpM, 3.37 SApM and 1.26 TDs per 15 minutes. Dolidze has power, but Holland has only been knocked out once. Become a member to access all of our UFC 307 predictions.
Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley Predictions
- Fight Odds: Thompson (+175) vs. Buckley (-215)
Thompson (17-7-1) has been struggling to pick up wins consistently for years. Buckley (19-6) has won his last four fights, with two TKO/KO wins. Thompson still has power, as he knocked out Holland in 2022.
Buckley has been knocked out four times. Thompson averages 4.11 SLpM and 3.03 SApM, while Buckley averages 4.25 SLpM and 3.12 SApM. He also averages 1.69 TDs per 15 minutes.
Thompson’s losses are against top competition. I’m betting on him to win with these odds.
Best Bet: Stephen Thompson ML
Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo Predictions
- Fight Odds: Rodriguez (+164) vs. Lucindo (-189)
Rodriguez (17-4-2) has lost three of her last four fights. She lost to Jessica Andrade earlier this year, but it was a close split decision. Lucindo (16-5) lost her UFC debut, but has won three consecutive fights.
Rodriguez averages 4.82 SLpM and 3.12 SApM, but doesn’t attempt many TDs. Lucindo averages 3.95 SLpM, 3.11 SApM and 2.23 TDs per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has 65% TDD in the UFC.
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Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez Predictions
- Fight Odds: Hubbard (+140) vs. Hernandez (-166)
Hubbard (16-7) has won three of his last four fights. Hernandez (14-8) is 1-4 since 2022, with his lone win coming against Jim Miller. This isn’t the most exciting fight on paper, but who knows what’ll happen.
Hernandez averages 4.33 SLpM, 4.66 SApM and 1.06 TDs per 15 minutes. Hubbard averages 1.75 TDs per 15 minutes, 4.11 SLpM and 3.74 SApM. Hernandez has been in poor form, but he’s still favored. This is going to be a close fight and could go either way. Find out who I’m picking on my profile (SWJ Sports).
Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria Predictions
- Fight Odds: Almeida (-380) vs. Potieria (+305)
Almeida (5-1) won his UFC debut, but lost last time out against Roman Kopylov. Kopylov is a beast and Almeida went the distance (split decision). Potieria (20-6) is 2-4 in the UFC, with one of his wins coming against the aging Mauricio Rua. Potieria has been knocked out four times in his career.
Almeida has four TKO/KO wins, including in his UFC debut against Dyl;an Budka. Almeida averages 4.25 SLpM and 1.88 SApM, while Potieria averages 5.13 SLpM and 5.04 SApM. Neither fighter has attempted a takedown in the UFC. I’m betting on Almeida to defeat Potieria by TKO/KO this weekend.
Best Bet: Cesar Almeida by TKO/KO
Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux Predictions
- Fight Odds: Spann (-245) vs. Saint Preux (+184)
Spann (21-10) has lost his last three fights dating back to last year. Saint Preux (27-17) hasn’t been too active lately, but he’s 2-1 since 2022 and is coming off a win against Kennedy Nzechukwu in March.
OSP is 41 years old and he has been knocked out five times. Spann is a finisher, but he’s more of a submission specialist (12 submission wins / 6 TKO/KO wins). Which veteran will win?
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UFC 307 Odds
Here are the latest UFC 307 odds for all 12 fights on the card:
- Alex Pereira (-460) vs. Rountree Jr. (+360)
- Raquel Pennington (-165) vs. Julianna Pena (+135)
- Jose Aldo (+120) vs. Mario Bautista (-140)
- Ketlen Vieira (+540) vs. Kayla Harrison (-1035)
- Roman Dolidze (+126) vs. Kevin Holland (-146)
- Stephen Thompson (+175) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-215)
- Marina Rodriguez (+164) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-189)
- Austin Hubbard (+140) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-166)
- Cesar Almeida (-380) vs. Ihor Potieria (+305)
- Ryan Spann (-245) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+184)
- Carla Esparza (+145) vs. Tecia Pennington (-175)
- Court McGee (+165) vs. Tim Means (-190)
I’m excited to watch the two championship fights this weekend. I’m interested to see Harrison as well. The rest of the card isn’t great, but it’s still going to be a great night of fights.
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