2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures

One of the predominant NFL futures bets is on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The first game of the 2023 NFL season has been and gone! The Detroit Lions got a surprise victory over Super Bowl champs Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs desperately missed Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. 

We also got to see one of the new exciting rookies in action Jahmyr Gibbs on Thursday night. Could he be a Rookie of the Year contender? Betting on futures is an incredibly popular way to bet on the NFL. From Super Bowl winners, conference champs, divisional winners, MVP, and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, there are so many futures you can bet on. 

Below, I will be focusing on my selections for the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. We have had a host of fresh new talent from the 2023 NFL draft and it will be intriguing to see how they will perform this year. 

Will Bijan Robinson live up to the hype? Could Dalton Kincaid become the first-ever tight end to win the award? Can Bryce Young become the first quarterback to win it since 2020? Let’s take a look at some of the top candidates. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Previous Winners 

A good place to start before highlighting the top picks for the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is by looking at past winners of the award. It has only ever been awarded to a quarterback, wide receiver, or running back. Neither a tight end nor an offensive lineman has previously won the award. 

Running backs have largely dominated the title, with 30 out of the first 40 winners being in that position. Nevertheless, more recent trends have favored quarterbacks and wide receivers more. 

The last four NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners have either been a quarterback or a wide receiver. A running back hasn’t won the award since 2018 when Saquon Barkley was named the top offensive rookie. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – recent history 

Let’s take a look at the most recent winners of the award. Wide receivers have been named as the top offensive rookie in back-to-back seasons. New York Jets wideout Garrett Wilson won it last year, whilst the Cincinnati Bengals’ star receiver Ja’Marr Chase won the title in 2021. Both players hit 1000+ receiving yards in their respective seasons. 

In the two years prior to that, quarterbacks won the award. Los Angeles Chargers signal caller Justin Herbert won it in 2020. Arizona Cardinals man Kyler Murray won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019. 

Herbert had a passer rating of 98.3 in his rookie year and accounted for a total of 36 touchdowns. Murray had a passer rating of just 87.4 in 2019 and had a total of 24 touchdowns. However, it was Murray’s dual-threat ability what made him so special. 

Barkley was the last running back to win the award in 2018. He rushed for over 1300 yards in his rookie season and also had over 700 receiving yards as well. Those phenomenal statistics were certainly deserving of winning the award. Fellow running back Alvin Kamara won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year the year prior in 2017. 

2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Top Candidates 

It’s time to take a look at the top candidates and picks to win the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Running backs and quarterbacks dominate the top five contenders. Let’s take a look at the odds for the top five: 

• Bijan Robinson +287 (RB Atlanta Falcons)
• Bryce Young +450 (QB Carolina Panthers)
• Anthony Richardson +687 (QB Indianapolis Colts) 
• Jahmyr Gibbs +900 (RB Detroit Lions)
• C.J. Stroud +900 (QB Houston Texans)

As you can see, the top five candidates are either running backs or quarterbacks. Robinson is the favorite to win after he was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2023 draft by the Falcons. It’s his dual-threat ability that makes him the favorite. 

In Robinson’s final year at Texas, he rushed for 1580 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also had 19 receptions for 314 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps we may see a similar season to Barkley’s rookie year as he was crowned OROY. 

Could a quarterback win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? 

Three quarterbacks make up the top five and all three are set to start for their respective franchises. 2020 was the last time a QB won the award. 

Young is the second favorite to win the award but the offense surrounding him doesn’t look too strong. With an aging Adam Thielen and unproven receivers D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault on the roster, it seems unlikely Young will be able to win OROY.

The rushing ability of Anthony Richardson could mean he is a strong contender. Despite starting just 13 games in college, the 21-year-old was drafted fourth overall by the Colts. Richardson needs to improve his passing game but if he can demonstrate elite rushing ability and if head coach Shane Steichen can get the best out of him (like he did with Jalen Hurts) there’s a chance he could win OROY. 

Longshots to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

I will conclude my NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year article by naming a few longshot choices to win the award. All of the wide receivers are outside the top five in terms of odds, whilst the shortest-priced tight end is outside the top ten. 

Jordan Addison (+1600) is the shortest price for a wide receiver since receivers from the latest draft are not set up for any clear WR1 roles. However, Addison’s landing spot with the Vikings, who threw the fifth most passing yards in the league last year, means he could be a solid contender. He will have to battle with the elite Justin Jefferson for targets though. 

Kincaid (+4000) is set for a big role in the Buffalo Bills’ offense in 2023. A tight end has never won the award but he is a great longshot candidate. Outside of Stefon Diggs, the Bills don’t have too many pass-catching options. Therefore, Kincaid could have a high volume of targets and could be an unlikely contender to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.