2024 NHL Hart Trophy Winner – Odds and Predictions

We’re going to predict the 2024 NHL Hart Trophy winner. We’ve analyzed the odds, trends, past winners and roster moves to identify the best value for this NHL futures betting market.

Connor McDavid is the odds-on favorite to be crowned the 2024 NHL Hart Trophy winner. Hart Trophy favorites will change throughout the season and we’ll be providing updates all season.

What Is the NHL Hart Trophy?

The Hart Trophy is officially named the “Hart Memorial Trophy”.

The ice hockey award is awarded to the most valuable player (MVP) in the NHL during the regular season and voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. There have been 99 Hart Trophy winners (61 different players) since the award’s inception back in 1923-24 (Frank Nighbor won the first award).

2024 NHL Hart Trophy Winner Odds

Here are the 2024 Hart Trophy winner odds for the top 30 players in this NHL futures betting market:

It’s rare for a player to be an odds-on favorite to win an NHL award. McDavid exploded last season and led the NHL in goals, assists and points. The last hockey player to lead the NHL in goals and assists was Mario Lemieux (1995-96), but he was tied with Ron Francis in assists. The last player to lead the league outright in goals and assists was Wayne Gretzky (1986-87). It’s rare to lead the NHL in goals and assists.

This is why McDavid is priced so low to repeat. If he’s playing well, no other player is on his level.

The NHL Hart Trophy favorites will fluctuate throughout the season. Player performance, team results and injuries will all impact the Hart Trophy winner odds throughout the season.

Top Contenders to Be Hart Trophy Winner in 2024

There are eight hockey players priced at +2000 odds or below to be the 2024 Hart Trophy winner.

Connor McDavid (-105) was the Hart Trophy winner in 2023. It was the third time he won the award. He was also voted the Hart Trophy winner in 2017 and 2021. McDavid set career-highs in goals (64), assists (89) and points (153) last season. If he matches that production, he’ll be the 2024 Hart Trophy winner.

McDavid could be the first back-to-back Hart Trophy winner since Alexander Ovechkin (2008 and 2009).

Nathan MacKinnon (+900), Leon Draisaitl (+1000) and Matthew Tkachuk (+1200) are next in the market. MacKinnon finished fifth in points (111) last season despite missing 11 games. The Avalanche signed Jonathan Drouin this offseason and he’s expected to be on the first line with MacKinnon. With Gabriel Landeskog out for the regular season, MacKinnon will need to step up and produce MVP numbers.

Regular Season Oilers Put Up Points

Draisaitl scored 52 goals and finished second in points (128) last season. He gets lots of power play time with McDavid. He’s expected to play on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane. Tkachuk finished last season with 109 points (T6). He scored 40+ goals for the second consecutive season.

Auston Matthews (+1600) couldn’t match his 2020-21 production last season. He scored 40+ goals for the fourth consecutive season. He could have a resurgent season with Tyler Bertuzzi playing on the first line with him and Mitchell Marner. Kirill Kaprizov (+1600) is a star player for the Wild, but he feels overpriced based on his production last season. He scored 40 goals, but finished with 75 points (T40).

Jack Hughes (+1800) had a career-year last season. Hughes posted 43 goals (8th) and 99 points (T12), but he’ll need to produce even more to be crowned the 2024 Hart Trophy winner. David Pastrnak (+2000) is an interesting contender. Will he be able to produce without Patrice Bergeron? Pastrnak had 61 goals (2nd) and 113 points (T3) last season, but he’s unlikely to match that with Pavel Zacha as his center.

Longshots to Be Hart Trophy Winner in 2024

It’s not common for a longshot to be named the Hart Trophy winner. However, it happens. Some recent examples are Corey Perry (2011), Carey Price (2015) and Taylor Hall (2018).

Nikita Kucherov (+2500) and Jason Robertson (+2500) are potential longshots.

Last season, Kucherov scored 113 points (T3) and Robertson scored 109 points (T6). Kucherov finished second in assists (83) behind McDavid and scored 42 goals (T9). Robertson scored 46 goals (7th).

Mikko Rantanen (+4000) scored 55 goals (3rd) last season and finished with 105 points (8th). If he can score 50+ goals and add more assists, he could potentially be the 2024 Hart Trophy winner.

The problem with hunting down longshots for the Hart Trophy winner futures betting market is that there is only one MVP. Unless McDavid suffers an injury, there’s no player that can match his production.

2024 Hart Trophy Odds Updates

(July 1st 2023): Connor McDavid (-105) opened up as the Hart Trophy winner favorite. Some other Hart Trophy favorites are Nathan MacKinnon (+900), Leon Draisaitl (+1000) and Matthew Tkachuk (+1200).

(October 23rd 2023): There are now three Hart Trophy favorites with odds below +1000. McDavid (+200) is still leading the market, but he has had a slow start and is currently injured. Jack Hughes (+400) has gone from seventh to be a Hart Trophy winner in the market a to second after a fast start. Auston Matthews (+650) started dropping after scoring two hat-tricks to start the season, but he hasn’t scored in his last three games. Matthew Tkachuk (+2000) was one of the top four Hart Trophy favorites to open the season, but he’s trending down. David Pastrnak (+1400) is still a threat in Boston and his Hart Trophy winner odds are dropping fast after scoring five goals (eight points) in five games. Elias Pettersson (+3000) has seen his odds drop in half, as he has piled up ten points in five games.

(December 19th 2023): The 2024 NHL Hart Trophy winner race is heating up and there are five players with odds below +1000 currently. Connor McDavid (+320) still leads the market, but his odds are paying much higher now than during the preseason when he was the odds-on favorite. McDavid is tied for fifth in points (41), but he only has 11 goals this season. Nikita Kucherov (+380) has closed the gap significantly on McDavid after opening up at +2500 during the preseason. The other three Hart Trophy favorites at this time are David Pastrnak (+550), Jack Hughes (+650) and Nathan MacKinnon (+750). Kucherov is third in goals (20) and first in points (52). Pastrnak is tied for fifth in points (41) and has been the Bruins’ MVP. MacKinnon is second in points (47). The Hart Trophy winner race is going to come down to the wire.

Nathan MacKinnon Leads Hart Trophy Favorites

(February 7th 2024): Nathan MacKinnon (-120) is the odds-on favorite to be the Hart Trophy winner in 2024. MacKinnon has never been crowned the NHL regular season MVP. He’s tied for first in the NHL in points (85). The player tied with him in points is Nikita Kucherov (+260). Unless something drastic happens, MacKinnon and Kucherov will battle it out to become the Hart Trophy winner. Connor McDavid (+425) would need to have an incredible final stretch to have a chance. Auston Matthews (+1300) and David Pastrnak (+1300) round out the top five Hart Trophy favorites. Pastrnak has some outside value, as he’s third in points (73) and has become the Bruins’ leader this season, with Patrice Bergeron retiring during the offseason.

2024 NHL Hart Trophy Winner Predictions

It’s tough to go out on a limb when betting on the 2024 Hart Trophy winner. McDavid has led the NHL in points for three consecutive seasons. Since entering the league as a rookie during the 2015-16 season, McDavid has averaged 1.49 points per game, which easily leads the league during that time frame.

McDavis posted 150+ points in a single season for the first time since Lemieux (1995-96).

Barring injury, McDavid will repeat as the Hart Trophy winner for the first time since Ovechkin.

Best Bet: Connor McDavid (-105)

Past Hart Memorial Trophy Winners

Here are the last ten players to be crowned the Hart Trophy winner:

McDavid has been the Hart Trophy winner in three of the last seven NHL seasons. There have also been seven first-time Hart Trophy winners in the last ten seasons. Price is the only goalie to win the award in the last ten seasons. Canadians have won the award in six of the last ten seasons.

A center has been the Hart Trophy winner the last four seasons and seven of the last 12 seasons.

NHL Hart Trophy FAQ