2024 PGA American Express Predictions & Preview

The 2024 PGA Tour continues this week and this time we head to Palm Springs, California after opening the season in Hawaii. Have you considered American Express predictions?

Justin Thomas is making his season debut and is featuring in the AmEx for the first time in nine years. Names such as Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele will also be competing in California this week. 

It should be a fun weekend in Palm Springs and the glorious weather is indicating that players will be able to make a ton of birdies, especially on some of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. Let’s get into my American Express Predictions & Preview!

2024 PGA Sony Open Results 

Firstly, let’s recap what happened in the Sony Open last weekend. Grayson Murray was the longshot victor in Hawaii last week. He won in dramatic fashion too, defeating An Byeong-hun and Keegan Bradley in a playoff. 

It’s not been the best of starts to the new season for me in terms of my golf picks. I have failed to find any winners over the first two tournaments. Nevertheless, I was successful a lot last season so I have faith that I can bounce back soon. 

Check out my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell, to find out all of my American Express predictions this week. We could have a juicy longshot winner on the cards!

2024 American Express Preview

When: Thursday, January 18th – Sunday, January 21st, 2024

Where: PGA West, Palm Springs, California

TV: Golf Channel / NBC / ESPN+ / Peacock

Field: 156 Golfers

Purse: $8,400,000 (Winner gets $1,512,000)

Reigning champion Jon Rahm won the AmEx last year as he managed to beat Davis Thompson by one stroke. However, Rahm won’t be featuring this time around after he left the PGA Tour to join LIV Golf back in December. 

The AmEx signals the start of a three-week stint where the PGA Tour has events hosted in California. The tournament this week is part of the “West Coast Swing.” The first edition of the event was known as the “Palm Springs Desert Golf Classic” and was played in 1960. Arnold Palmer won the inaugural event, beating Fred Hawkins by three strokes. 

Since 2012, the Pro-Am tournament has been reduced from five rounds to four rounds and the event has been known as the American Express since 2020. Players will compete across three courses over the first three rounds before the Pete Dye Stadium Course stages the final round on Sunday. 

PGA West – La Quinta Country Club Course Information

The AmEx has a unique format by which the first three rounds of the tournament are played across three different courses. The three courses that will be used here are at La Quinta Country Club, the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and Pete Dye Stadium Course. The field of 156 golfers will be spread out across the three courses. 

La Quinta Country Club

Par: 72  / Yards: 7,066

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

Par: 72 / Yards: 7,147

Pete Dye Stadium Course

Par: 72 / Yards: 7,187

Greens: Bermudagrass

Since amateurs are competing alongside the pros this week, we are expected to see low scoring over the weekend. Skills with the driver are not considered to be too important and past winners have not necessarily excelled off the tee. Hot form with the putter seems to be a good metric to consider due to the high number of birdies likely to be made. 

Winners of the AmEx over the last decade haven’t usually been in the best of form heading into the event, either, so performances at the Sentry and the Sony Open should be taken with a pinch of salt when trying to identify the victor this week. 

Expert PGA American Express Predictions for 2024

Scottie Scheffler (+500) is the current market leader, and the world No.1 ranked golfer will be searching for his first win on the PGA Tour since March at the Players Championship. However, his price isn’t offering much value, especially since we have seen a host of longshot winners at this event in recent history. 

Considering that being hot with the flat stick is one of the best indicators this week, I am recommending that you fade Scheffler here. He ranked just 162nd for SG: Putting throughout the 2022/23 PGA Tour season and his putting let him down again last week in the Sony Open. Still, Scheffler will be expected to be incredibly popular for American Express predictions. 

However, a shorterodds candidate we could consider is Xander Schauffele (+950). Schauffele ranked fifth in SG: Putting last season and he finished T3 in the AmEx last year, just two shots behind winner Rahm. He hasn’t been too great with the putter to start 2024, though, ranking 97th in SG: Putting. 

Top Contenders to Win the 2024 PGA American Express 

A golfer who has looked very promising to start 2024 is J.T. Poston (+2800). He finished T5 and sixth at the Sentry and the Sony Open respectively. He is well-known to be good with the flat stick and also finished T6 in the AmEx last year. The 30-year-old is well-suited to these types of courses and will look to utilize a mix of his strong iron play and skill with the putter in California. 

With the AmEx considered to be a birdie-fest, it’s not a surprise that Sungjae Im is one of the market leaders at +1750. Im currently tops the charts in terms of Birdie Average through the first two events of 2024. He has performed well in this tournament in the past as well, with form figures at the AmEx reading 18-11-12-10-12. 

Patrick Cantlay (+850) is a strong contender this week and will be very common for American Express predictions. He ranked second in Birdie Average across the 2022/23 season so that will bode well for him here. Despite finishing T26 in last year’s AmEx, he finished ninth in 2022 and second in 2021.

Longshots to Win the 2024 PGA American Express 

Longshot contenders have had great success at winning the AmEx over the years so we could be in for some big profits if we can identify the winner here. With this tournament having a history of longshot winners, it will be worth taking a punt on an outsider again this year. 

Last year’s runner up in Davis Thompson (+8500) could be a good value pick this week. He currently ranks 12th in SG: Putting this season and he was unfortunate not to win the AmEx in 2023. Thompson will also be competing on one of the easier courses at La Quinta. 

Wyndham Clark (+3500) isn’t as long as Thompson, but he could still be in with a shot at performing well here. He won twice on the PGA Tour in 2023, including the U.S. Open which was played in California. Clearly, he loves playing in desert conditions. Clark has shown good ability to make plenty of birdies as well, ranking 27th in Birdie Average last season. 

The final golfer that we will be looking at for American Express predictions is Taylor Montgomery (+4500). He finished fifth in this event in 2023 and he put in a solid showing at the Sony Open with a T13 finish. Montgomery ranked ninth for Birdie Average for 2022/23 and was superb with the flat stick last season as well, sitting second in SG: Putting. 

2024 PGA American Express Predictions – Outright Winner

As usual, I have selected three candidates to win the AmEx outright this week. Hopefully I will be able to find the winner with my American Express predictions after failing to land a pick across the first two events of the season. 

You can gain full access to all of my American Express predictions by heading over to my handicapper page, Ashlee Kiddell. I’m up $736 over the last seven days so I have been in good form with my overall picks recently. 

A further three picks have been made below for golfers to secure a top 5 finish. You can see who I have gone for with those selections in the next section. 

Best Bet: SIGN IN TO ACCESS PICK

2024 PGA American Express Predictions – Top 5 Finish

Priced at +1150 to finish inside the top 5, I’m going for Davis Thompson to perform in back-to-back American Express events here. His price is too hard to ignore after his superb display in 2023 and he looked good with the putter at the Sony Open. 

The next pick for my American Express predictions sees me take a shorter-priced candidate to finish inside the top 5 this week. I’m expecting Sungjae Im to continue making birdies here and he’s performed well at the AmEx in the past. His price of +400 offers decent value as well. 

With Thompson at such a high price for a top 5 finish, and outsiders performing well in this tournament in the past, we could turn a nice profit here. I have also gone for Taylor Montgomery (+950), primarily due to his strong putting ability. 

Best Bet: Davis Thompson (+1150), Sungjae Im (+400) & Taylor Montgomery (+950)

2024 PGA American Express Odds

Here are the odds for the top 30 golfers at the 2024 PGA American Express (subject to change):