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The 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) season is well underway, and there’s already been plenty of intriguing storylines. The most noteworthy of which has been the increased pace of play and action. With these changes, it’s important to find new ways to look at the game. We have some baseball betting tips to consider going forward.
Although baseball has dipped in popularity in recent years, new rules changes could inject some new life into the sport. MLB betting markets steal the show for most of the summer, so it’s a good time to get your mind right when it comes to wagering on America’s Pastime.
MLB is a great league for sports betting as there’s at least a handful of games every day for more than seven months of the year. Bettors can wager on the money line, run line, total, and a range of props. Below is a look at some baseball betting tips and other things to consider before placing a bet.
Why You Should Avoid Huge Moneyline Favorites – Baseball Betting Tips
This is a general rule that applies to all sports betting, but is certainly helpful when wagering on MLB games.
Oddsmakers hope to take advantage of inexperienced bettors, who normally take the favorites.
Teams in major markets, including the Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees, will almost always be overpriced because they have more fans than other teams. Thus, are more likely to receive action from non-sharp bettors.
Regular season favorites with odds of at least -150 won 63 percent of games from 2005 to 2022, which isn’t that impressive. In fact, you would have lost more than 300 units by taking the favorites in all of those games because of the plus money you have to stake.
Favor Plus-Money Underdogs
By no means should you just always look to bet on underdogs. But it’s usually a good strategy, as you can win more than double your stake. You also only lose what you risk when underdogs lose.
When factoring in the juice most sportsbooks include in their betting options, bettors have to have a success rate of at least 52.4 percent to break even. Assuming all bets are at -110 odds or shorter.
However, you can profit with a much lower success rate when constantly betting on underdogs.
Avoid Run Line Home Favorites – Baseball Betting Tips Truth or Myth?
The baseball run line is an against-the-spread (ATS) betting option that essentially levels the playing field between two teams. The runline is always 1.5, appearing as +1.5 and -1.5.
This means the favorite will have to win by two to cover the spread. Historically, home teams have a better winning percentage than the visiting teams, but they don’t always cover (win by 2 runs or more).
In fact, 20 of the league’s 30 teams had an ATS road win percentage of .500 or better through the first 10 days of the 2023 MLB season.
Even when home teams win, they typically have one fewer inning to bat and add more runs. If the game is tied through eight innings, the home team only needs one run to win the game and thus would be unlikely to cover a -1.5 run line.
Let Sports Hub Guide You To More MLB Winning Bets
While these opinions are true, there are exceptions to every rule.
There is plenty of value to be had betting on the home favorite to win by 2 and cover the spread. Like most other markets, you need to pick your spots.
Teams like the Braves, Astros, Dodgers and other powerhouses tend to dominate at home during the hot summer nights. There are pitching matchups to exploit when home aces are facing low-end opposing starting pitchers. Baseball betting tips will help, but get the info you really need.
The average recreational baseball bettor won’t see those matchups. Let SportsHub.com help you find those spots and get your money on the right side. Get your free account today. No credit card required.
Check the Weather
Perhaps more than any other sport, weather is a strong factor in determining both the outcome and total of baseball games. When it comes to baseball betting tips, the weather could be as simple as they come. Temperature and wind, in particular, can have an impact.
Generally, the warmer it is, the better chance there will be more runs in a game. The air becomes less dense in hot and humid conditions, which, in turn, limits its resistance to the ball. This can add a few feet to every hit, possibly turning a deep fly ball into a home run. Hot and humid conditions also favor the offense, as pitchers are more likely to become fatigued quicker.
Similarly, the wind can have a major impact on the amount of runs scored in a game. With high winds blowing towards home plate, would-be home runs can easily be turned into routine fly balls. The opposite is true, with high winds blowing toward the outfield.
Baseball Betting Tips – Know the Umpires
We’re probably not too far away from robot umpires in MLB but, until then, you should make an effort to research the umpires for the games on which you’re betting. Umpires are human and have biases and differences between them. Some call a tighter strike zone, which could impact the total, and others might favor the road or home team.
Batters have walked just 7.3 percent of the time in the 482 games Bill Miller has umpired. In comparison, they have walked 9.4 percent of the time in the 198 games Tim McClelland has been behind the plate. This indicates that McClelland has a tighter strike zone which could mean more walks, hits, and runs. Batters have a .265 average in McClelland’s games and .251 average in Miller’s games.
Opportunities in Divisional Underdogs
There’s fewer opportunities to profit on underdogs in division matchups this season with the changes in the MLB schedule. However, as a general rule, you can expect to fare better when taking the underdogs in divisional matchups as opposed to non-divisional matchups.
Divisional opponents are usually more familiar with each other, which benefits the underdog, especially on the run line, more than the favorite.
Study Sabermetrics for Pitchers – Baseball betting Tips
The starting pitcher is one of the most important aspects to consider for betting on baseball. It’s a good plan to make starting pitchers a part of your baseball betting tips and strategies regime. Although one team may have a significantly better record than its opponent, it could be an underdog if the other team’s ace was on the mound.
You need to look beyond elementary stats like wins, ERA, and WHIP, however.
Sabermetrics stats to look at include a strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The better a pitcher is at striking out batters, the more capable he will be of getting out of tough situations. Alternatively, a pitcher who gives up too many walks without striking out many is more likely to give up more runs.
BABIP, meanwhile, is a metric that can be used to show how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been. Based on an historical analysis, about 30 percent of balls in play result in a hit. If a pitcher has a BAPIP of higher than .300, it could mean they’ve just been unlucky and that they’re eventually going to turn the corner.
You can visit our how to bet on baseball article for even more information on baseball betting tips and strategies.
