Fade the Public and Win Big – February 25

Sports bettors should be familiar with the term “fade the public.” It’s one of the more basic concepts in sports betting and if you don’t understand it, today is your lucky day. Today, we will explain what exactly “fade the public” means and share with you some real world examples. Understanding when to fade the public can help you beat the books more often.

We’ll start with a basic definition of the concept and then further explain the idea of “fade the public” with some examples. We’ll use yesterday’s college basketball, which gives us several opportunities to understand this concept in depth. By the time we’re done, you should be an expert in how to fade the public.

Fade the Public 101

To understand what “fade the public” means, you first have to know what we mean by “the public.” Public bettors make up the majority of those that bet on sports. They are not professionals and bet casually on sporting events. These public bettors tend to favor placing wagers on favorites, popular teams, teams with star players, and public bettors love to bet on the Over.

Let’s look at an example. In ACC basketball, North Carolina is one of the top teams of all-time. They are a blueblood program that consistently competes for ACC and national titles. This year, they are ranked No. 10 in the nation and they are currently in first place in the ACC. 

On Feb. 13, the Tar Heels played at Syracuse. The Orange are a middle-of-the-pack ACC team with an 18-10 record overall. It was no surprise that North Carolina was an 8.5-point favorite on the road at Syracuse. The public, of course, was all over the Tar Heels to win and cover the 8.5-point spread.

If you were a savvy bettor that knew to fade the public on this one, you would have been a big winner. Syracuse bettors got -105 odds on the Orange +8.5, which was easily covered. Those a bit more daring could have taken Syracuse for the outright win at +300 on the moneyline. A simple $20 bet on the Orange would have won $60 for a total payout of $80.

When to Fade the Public

Sharps love to fade the public. That’s because they love betting on the underdog. Sharp bettors are professionals that make a living betting on sports. They have years of experience digging through the numbers and injury reports. Sharps have learned when to fade the public and when not to.

It would be a good idea to get as much information on how sharps are seeing a certain game. Then, you place your bet just as the sharps have. One of the top strategies used by sharp bettors involves finding strong home underdogs. Economists have studied home underdogs and found that in some sports – the NFL, for example – that home underdogs win 54 percent of the time. 

Knowing when to fade the public can go a long way into having success as a bettor. On Friday night in the NBA, for example, the Houston Rockets were a 2.5-point home favorite against Phoenix. The Suns are a popular team with stars like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Of course, the public backed the Suns. It was a good opportunity to fade the public. Beal didn’t play and the Suns shot 22.6 percent from three-point range. Houston won 114-110.

Our Cappers Know When to Fade the Public

It’s a simple concept that will go a long way in helping bettors build their bankroll. You don’t simply make wild bets on underdogs. You find the right times when you should bet against the public. Underdogs win 44 percent of the time in MLB. The 2024 season will be here next month. Knowing when to fade the public will help you have a successful baseball season.

Let’s see how our cappers did yesterday.

• The Hawk does it again: One day after going 4-2, Mike Hawk followed it up with a 6-1 day to earn $419 and take the top spot on the daily leaderboard. Mike is now 10-3 over the last three days with earnings of $664. Not too shabby.
• James Anderson: James went 4-0, all on basketball picks, and earned $400 to take the second spot on yesterday’s leaderboard. Over the last seven days, James has added $717 to his bankroll just on basketball bets. He is No. 3 on the 7-day basketball leaderboard.
• Robert Ferguson: Robert is another Sports Hub expert who went 5-1 yesterday to earn $390. All six picks were on college basketball. For the week, Robert is up $620.
• Geovanny Araya: He’s our soccer expert and he did it again yesterday. Geovanny went 4-2 on six soccer picks and earned $377. Geovanny understands the concept of “fade the public” which he does often. He is currently our No. 1 capper on the overall 30-day leaderboard despite having a winning percentage of 49.4 percent. He’s up almost $2000 for the month.
• Seth Cohen: The last spot in the top-5 was taken by Seth, another Sports Hub expert. He went 3-0 and gave us a great example of how to fade the public. Seth bet on Calgary to beat the Edmonton Oilers on the road. The Flames were a +168 underdog and won 6-3. Seth took home $368 yesterday, which gives him $713 for the week.

Sunday’s Best in Sports

A former National League MVP will change teams and become a Chicago Cub. Who is it? You’ll have to continue reading to find out. We also saw the first woman umpire in a major league baseball game since 2007 yesterday in spring training. The Celtics continue to shine and an NHL birthday boy gets a nice present.

Let’s check it out.

• Bellinger to the Cubs: Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger signed a three-year, $80 million deal with the Chicago Cubs. Bellinger played his first six MLB seasons with the Dodgers. He was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 and the league MVP in 2019.
• Bertuzzi scores hat trick: Tyler Bertuzzi turned 29 years old yesterday. He has struggled this season with Toronto, but yesterday was his day. On his birthday, Bertuzzi recorded a hat trick as the Maple Leafs beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3.

• Celtics win eighth in a row: Boston shot 80 percent from two-point range in the first three quarters yesterday and beat the New York Knicks 116-102. It was the Celtics eighth straight win, which is their longest winning streak of the season.
• First female MLB umpire: Jen Pawol was the umpire for yesterday’s Houston Astros-Washington Nationals game. She was the first female to umpire a MLB game since 2007.

Sunday’s Sports Schedule

Yesterday offered bettors quite the spread. Today, it’s not as big a spread, but there are still plenty of options for bettors. If you are having trouble finding value, visit our members’ area and find out how our expert handicappers are betting today.

Let’s take a look at today’s schedule.

1. NBA: There are 11 games on the NBA schedule today. ABC has an afternoon doubleheader. It starts with Milwaukee at Philadelphia at 1 p.m. ET and ends with the Los Angeles Lakers at the Phoenix Suns at 3:30 p.m. But wait…there’s more. ESPN has a primetime doubleheader. Denver is at Golden State starting at 7 p.m. and Sacramento and the Los Angeles Clippers cap off the day at 9:30 p.m.
2. NHL: The NHL has seven games on the docket today. The league also has an afternoon doubleheader. Tampa Bay is in New Jersey to face the Devils at 1 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is at Pittsburgh beginning at 3:30 p.m. Both games are on TNT.
3. Soccer: Another huge day in soccer is ahead. Three more MLS games will conclude the first week of play in the 2024 season. Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga, and La Liga all have multiple matches. You better check out Geovanny Araya and see how’s he’s betting today.
4. NASCAR: The NASCAR season continues with the running of the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Joey Logano is the +900 favorite.

5. Tennis: On the ATP Tour, the Rio Open final is today between Mariano Navone and No. 4 seed Sebastian Baez. The Movistar Chile Open and the Abierto Mexicano Telcel continue today. The Puerto Vallarta Open final is today. The Cymbiotika San Diego Open and the ATX Open in Austin, Tex., both continue today on the WTA Tour.
6. Golf: Jake Knapp has the early lead in the final round of play in the Mexico Open. 
7. NCAAB: No. 3 Purdue plays at Michigan today. Two ranked Big East teams are in action as well. No. 15 Creighton takes on St. John’s and No. 7 Marquette hosts Xavier.

That’s all for today. Hopefully, you better understand the idea of “fade the public.” Knowing when to fade the public can lead to a lot of big wins. Just ask our expert handicappers. If you’re not a Sports Hub member, become one so you can access all of these great cappers. Win big today and we’ll see you back here tomorrow.