It’s that time of the year where we’re all hunting down the best draft value picks for season-long fantasy football leagues. Today, we’re going to analyze average draft position (ADP) to identify draft value picks.
This is our first fantasy football guide for the 2023 NFL season. We’ll be publishing fantasy football guides weekly in the lead up to the start of the season that are helpful for season-long and daily fantasy players.
To generate the ADP, we’ve compiled data from four platforms (ESPN, Fantrax, MFL and NFFC). We’re using data from 12-team PPR fantasy football leagues to generate the ADP for players.
Best Draft Value Picks at Quarterback
Here are the best draft value picks by ADP at quarterback for fantasy football 2023:
- Geno Smith – ADP: 103.8 – QB16
Smith isn’t getting any respect in Seattle. Smith scored 314.9 fantasy points (QB5) last season and he’s now being drafted around QB16. He averaged 18.5 FPPG (QB8). Smith threw for 4,282 yards (QB8) and 30 TD passes (QB4). He also added 366 rushing yards (QB8) and 1 rushing TD on 68 carries.
WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both eclipsed 1000 receiving yards last season and are back. Smith also has two capable TEs in Noah Fant and Will Dissly. The Seahawks allowed 24.6 PPG (25th) last season and aren’t projected to be much better, which will mean Smith is passing the football a lot.
- Kirk Cousins – ADP: 91.1 – QB12
Cousins is a consistent fantasy football QB. He’s unlikely to put up top 5 numbers at QB, but last season he scored 305.6 fantasy points (QB7) and averaged 18.0 FPPG (QB11). Cousins finished the season with 4,547 passing yards (QB4) and 29 passing TDs (QB5). He needs to limit the interceptions (14 – QB3).
I expect Cousins to be one of the best draft value picks at QB for numerous reasons. RB Dalvin Cook is gone and with a weaker run game, Cousins will likely need to throw even more often. He has the best WR in the NFL (Justin Jefferson) and he’ll have a full season with TE T.J. Hockenson.
Bobby Wagner's been all the Seahawks expected–and more–in his Seattle return.
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) August 9, 2023
But don't expect 54, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, many other Seattle starters to play Thursday's preseason opener vs Vikings–if this week's practices are indicators. Who will: https://t.co/sGfqvV0gml
Best Draft Value Picks at Running Back
Here are the best draft value picks by ADP at running back for fantasy football 2023:
- Tony Pollard – ADP: 23.8 – RB8
Pollard is trending up in ADP, but he remains one of the best draft value picks at RB. Pollard scored 248.8 fantasy points (RB8) and averaged 15.6 FPPG (RB9) despite Ezekiel Elliott being in the fold. Pollard was the only RB in the NFL to surpass 1000 rushing yards on less than 200 carries last season.
Elliott had 231 carries last season and he’s gone. Pollard won’t get all of those touches, but he’s going to have more than 193 carries. Elliott also had 12 rushing TDs and Pollard will get more red zone touches as the RB1 in Dallas. When the top RBs are being drafted in the first round, drafting Pollard at the end of the second round or early third round will put you in a great position . Pollard will finish as a top five RB.
- Cam Akers – ADP: 67.6 – RB20
Akers has lots of upside at RB, as he’s the clear RB1 for the Rams. Akers scored 141.3 fantasy points (RB35) last season in a disappointing year. However, he led the NFL in rushing yards in the final six weeks of the season (85.3 RYPG) and he had 100+ rushing yards in the final three weeks of the season.
He had seven rushing TDs (RB14) and there’s room for more volume, as he only had 188 carries. Akers averaged 12.5 carries per game last season, but that jumped to 17.3 in the final six weeks. Sean McVay put his trust in Akers down the stretch. The Rams need a run game to protect Matthew Stafford.
#Cowboys running back Tony Pollard announced on Instagram he is a part of the @QCollarOfficial family 🏈
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) August 9, 2023
Their mission statement is “To reduce the incidence of traumatic brain injury on the sports field and on the battlefield.” 🤟
(🎥: @Tp__5 on IG) pic.twitter.com/t3AIl353r7
Best Draft Value Picks at Wide Receiver
Here are the best draft value picks by ADP at wide receiver for fantasy football 2023:
- Mike Evans – ADP: 72.6 – WR31
Sure, Tom Brady is retired and Baker Mayfield is likely the starting QB in Tampa Bay, but Evans has been consistent his entire career. Evans has had 1000+ receiving yards in all nine seasons he has been in the NFL. Last season, Evans scored 225.4 fantasy points (WR17) and averaged 15.0 FPPG (WR14).
Evans finished the season with 1,124 receiving yards (WR12) and six receiving TDs (WR19). Out of WRs with 50+ targets, Evans finished as the WR15 in yards per reception (14.6). Another reason to like Evans as one of the best draft value picks is his durability. He has played 15+ games in eight of nine seasons.
- Jerry Jeudy – ADP: 52.1 – WR20
Can Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson and the Broncos this season? I’m betting on it. Jeudy scored 204.2 fantasy points (WR22) and averaged 13.6 FPPG (WR21) last season despite Wilson’s struggles. He had 972 receiving yards (WR22) and six receiving TDs (WR19). He ranked 9th in 20+ yard receptions (31).
46.3% of Jeudy’s receptions went for 20+ yards last season. He’s a big play threat and his volume should spike this year. WR Tim Patrick is out for the season and WR KJ Hamler was waived (heart issue). That’ll leave a ton of targets for Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. In the final six weeks of last season, Jeudy hauled in 37 receptions (6.2 receptions per game) on 45 targets for 523 yards (87.2 receiving yards per game).
Are you In or Out on Mike Evans in Fantasy Football this year? pic.twitter.com/WiLNUdUakO
— GameBlazers (@PlayGameBlazers) August 2, 2023
Best Draft Value Picks at Tight End
Here are the best draft value picks by ADP at tight end for fantasy football 2023:
- T.J. Hockenson – ADP: 44.8 – TE3
Travis Kelce crushed the TE position last season, but you need to use your first round pick on him. You’ll be able to get Hockenson in the fourth round, allowing you to get top talent at WR and RB. Hockenson scored 215.4 fantasy points (TE2) and averaged 12.7 FPPG (TE3) last season. Kelce averaged 18.6 FPPG last season, which is only 5.9 FPPG more than Hockenson, but at the cost of more draft capital.
Hockenson put up TE2 numbers despite being traded mid-season and learning a new playbook. He’ll be more familiar with the playbook this season and Cousins will target him a lot. Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets per game with the Vikings in ten regular season games. WR Adam Thielen is no longer with the Vikings and he had 107 targets last season, which should mean even more targets for Hockenson.
- Tyler Higbee – ADP: 136.4 – TE15
Higbee isn’t going to have many big games, but he’ll produce weekly for your fantasy football team. He scored 152.0 fantasy points (TE6) and 9.5 FPPG (TE10) last season. WR Cooper Kupp will lead the Rams in targets, but Higbee will be second in targets, plus Stafford is back at QB.
Higbee finished last season with 72 receptions (TE5), 620 receiving yards (TE9) and 3 receiving TDs (TE19). He had five receiving TDs in 2020 and 2021. If he can improve upon his touchdown numbers, he’ll have a shot at being a top 5 TE in fantasy football for 2023 and he’s being drafted at TE15.
