Hope springs eternal at the start of football seasons for most teams – at least, the one not named the Arizona Cardinals.
The same holds true for contest players across Las Vegas and America as they prepare to play in a variety of “Last Man Standing”, “Survivor”, “SuperContest” and “Circa Millions”, as we detailed earlier this week.
The Stakes at Westgate and Circa
And hope better be there, especially when you plunk down whatever modest amount your budget allows. At the Westgate and Circa, where “Sportshub.com” will be represented in the contest standings each week, it’s worth noting that Vegas football sports betting contests offer little risk and a big reward. Here’s hoping for a good start and a chance at one of the first early-season prizes (they come every three weeks in the SuperContest).
You might want to check out Westgate and Circa contests
Tomorrow is the last day to register for the @CircaSports football contests: Circa Million and Circa Survivor! 💰🏈
— Circa Las Vegas (@CircaLasVegas) September 8, 2023
Stop by our booth on the second floor to learn more or visit https://t.co/EjrXCgXm1k!
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The NFL Challenge: Making the Picks
How can the NFL already be this difficult? We’re supposed to find five games every week against the spread in both the Circa Millions and SuperContest. Yet the only sides that your author really liked this week based on his preseason power ratings were Indianapolis, Minnesota, and San Francisco. Finding a couple of others proved fairly difficult.
The Colts are +5 at the Westgate and +4.5 at Circa. Even without standout running back Jonathan Taylor and with a rookie quarterback, I still can’t make a case for the Jaguars laying this price on the road in the season opener in a divisional game. Indianapolis upgraded massively as head coach and has a lot of unknowns working in its favor. Remember, the Jags were 4-8 and lost in Indy last season before a late rally to make the playoffs. Now suddenly they’re laying more than a field goal here? Take, please.
I am higher on the Vikings than most despite the massive side of positive luck they seemed to be on most weeks last year. Indeed, the 13-4 record masked an amazing negative point differential for the season. That said, Tampa Bay might be the second-worst team in the league. They only won 8 games last year, lost Tom Brady and some key offensive linemen, and seem to have disgruntled vets in the locker room even before a game is played. Absolute fade mode for me here – and for game theory reasons, also went with Minnesota in Circa’s Survivor contest. The whole world figures to use Washington and/or be against Arizona as often as possible. I might well try doing the same against Tampa in many spots; Minnesota’s first-place schedule doesn’t allow me to use them many other times this season, regardless of how much I like their offense and head coach. They are -5.5 at Circa and -6 in the SuperContest.
I did use the 49ers -2.5 at both places because it seems like most key players are both signed and healthy – George Kittle (hamstring) and Charvarius Ward (heel) being notable concerns as of Friday evening. I just need to see more out of the Steeler offense to believe they are anything better than an average team in a stacked AFC North. San Francisco got stunned in the slop in Chicago in Week 1 last year so they should be on high alert to come out quicker in this spot Sunday, even with the 10 a.m. body clock start. Most sharp people figure to be on Pittsburgh or pass here, so we have a game theory play working to our advantage here as well, with fewer people likely to be on our winner.
Sifting for Potential Underdogs
After sifting through the rubble that was left, I focused on Carolina +3.5 and the Giants +3 at the Westgate. I don’t love each team, but the love and adulation are a little out of control for an Atlanta team that is starting a clear liability at quarterback. The Panthers might not be any great shakes, but they’ve got their franchise quarterback in place and I’m counting on a healthy Bryce Young being enough to help the ‘dog’ hang around and keep this a field goal game either way. I made Dallas only 1.5, so taking 3 with them at home and at night against Dallas seemed as good as I could do with what’s left. I think Dallas will win the NFC East this season, and are only slightly worse than Philly on paper (made up by a little bit easier schedule) but this is not an easy opening spot.
At Circa, my final two were Chicago -1 and Buffalo -2. The Bears are a true hold-your-noser, but I am really down on Green Bay’s injuries and quarterback. Jordan Love is just gonna have to prove to me that he can go into Chicago and win on the road against a superior quarterback, while the true talents of these teams are not nearly as far apart as records would have them indicate in 2022. The Jets might have sky-high expectations, but the Bills were the top power-rated team in the league most of last year, and I’ve got them right there again at the start of this season. I’ll tip my hat to the Jets if they can win this one, but I expect Buffalo to take control early, get the crowd out of the game, and punish the Jets in this spot. That said, my number doesn’t even support a bet, so all I’m doing is using it to fill out one of the five that I must have in the contest.
The only college contest left in town is a “Last Man Standing” at Stations Casinos. I consider myself a more proficient college football bettor, so it’s only funny that all five plays were on an underdog there, while I used Minnesota in multiple entries and a total of five favorites in the NFL (against the spread). I’ll break down that contest as we get further along in the season.
But as Week 1 for the pros kicks off, those who didn’t use the Chiefs in the contest are all undefeated. See, there’s that word “hope” again. Let’s hope we’re using “fun” and “winning” a little more in the coming weeks!