March Madness 2024: Top Trends When Filling Out Your Bracket

March Madness 2024 is less than a month away. Today, we’re going to analyze the top trends to consider when filling out your brackets. March Madness bracket trends will help you defeat your opposition.

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Seeds of March Madness Champions

Since 1985, which is when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, 33 out of 38 champions were a #1, #2 or #3 seed. A #1 seed has won March Madness 24 times (63%). The only other seeds to win the tourney are #2 (5), #3 (4), #4 (2), #6 (1), #7 (1) and #8 (1). No #9 or higher seed have ever won the tournament.

UConn (#4 seed) won March Madness last year, but prior to that a #1 seed won in five consecutive years. Since 2000, #1 seeds have won 16 out of 23 tournaments. During the same timeframe, only two winners were seeded #4 or higher. Why are the seeds of March Madness champions important?

Based on the historical data, you want to target a #1 seed to win it all on your March Madness 2024 bracket. You can also rule out having a #9 seed or higher winning it all on your March Madness 2024 bracket, as it has never happened in history.

March Madness 2024: First Round Upsets to Target

Here are some first round trends to consider when filling out your March Madness 2024 brackets.

You need a good reason to go against #1, #2 or #3 seeds in the first round. In the first round, #1 seeds are 150-2 (98.7%), #2 seeds are 141-11 (92.8%) and #3 seeds are 130-22 (85.5%). In the last six tournaments, #3 seeds are 26-2 (92.9%) in the first round of the March Madness tournament.

Targeting a #13 seed against a #4 seed is a good idea. #4 seeds are 120-32 (78.9%) all-time in the first round, but at least one #13 seed has advanced to the second round in 13 of the last 18 tournaments.

In the last ten tourneys, the #11 and #9 seeds have been the best first round upsets to target. #11 and #9 seeds have a 50% winning percentage (20-20) in the first round in the last ten tournaments. In the last ten tournaments, #12 seeds are 15-25 and #10 seeds are 14-26 in the first round of March Madness.

On average, there are six upsets in the first round. Keep this in mind for March Madness 2024.

March Madness 2024: Second Round Trends

We’ll now analyze some second round trends to help you with your March Madness 2024 brackets.

First off, no #16 seeds have ever won a second round game. In the last three tournaments, a #15 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16. A #14 seed hasn’t won a second round game since 1997 and a #13 seed hasn’t won a second round game since 2013, so don’t advance these two seeds far in your bracket.

In the last three tournaments, an #8 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16. Since 2000, only six #9 seeds have won a second round game. In the last six tournaments, only one #10 seed has won a second round game. Since 2014, at least one #11 seed has won a second round game in seven of nine tournaments.

Since 2010, only five #12 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16. You’ll want to target some upsets on your March Madness bracket, but don’t target too many. Historically, there have been between 10-16 upsets in the tournament, but a lot of fans will have too many upsets on their March Madness 2024 brackets.

Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four Trends

In the last ten tournaments, #1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 at a 75% clip (30 out of 40). The #1 seeds start to drop off after the Sweet 16, though. In the last ten tourneys, the #1 seeds have made the Elite Eight at a 55% rate (22 out of 40) and the Final Four at a 35% rate (14 out of 40).

Avoid having all four #1 seeds making the Final Four on your March Madness 2024 brackets, as it has only happened once (2008).

In the last ten tournaments, 57.5% of the #2, #3 and #4 seeds have made the Sweet 16 (23 out of 40). In the same timeframe, 17.5% of #2 seeds have made the Final Four. That percentage drops to 7.5% for the #3 and #4 seeds. After the top two seeds, there’s a lot of parity in March Madness results.

#6 seeds haven’t made the Final Four in the last ten tournaments. That can be attributed to having one of the toughest paths. #11 seeds have performed well in the first round. If the #6 seed escapes that round, they often play the #3 seed in their region next and then the #2 seed in the Sweet 16.

In the last ten tournaments, the #3, #4, and #8 seeds have made the championship game twice, but only one of the six teams won (#4 UConn in 2023). In that same timeframe, the #5 and #7 seeds have made the championship game once each. It gets tougher predicting the final three rounds on your March Madness 2024 brackets.

March Madness 2024: Bracket Strategy

Analyzing historical and recent March Madness bracket trends will give you an idea of how often upsets happen, but isolating which teams are capable of pulling off upsets is an entirely different process.

After Selection Sunday, you need to analyze the matchups to determine which upsets are worth targeting.

The first step is analyzing college basketball conference tournaments to gauge recent performances. You also want to look at the advanced stats to identify big mismatches on the court. In some cases, teams will have common opponents to study. Make sure you look for potential Cinderella teams as well. In the last three tourneys, there has been one #8 seed or higher in the Final Four. Last year, it was #9 Florida Atlantic.

Last season was an anomaly, as the Final Four featured a #4 seed, two #5 seeds and a #9 seed.

I recommend targeting a #1 seed to win it all on your March Madness 2024 brackets. Depending upon the seeding (matchups), you might want to target another #1 seed to make the Final Four. You also likely want to target a #2 seed to make the Final Four based on the last ten tournaments. Your other one or two selections will be dependent upon each team’s path to the Final Four, which we won’t be able to analyze until after Selection Sunday.

Selection Sunday is on March 17th 2024. As you’re filling out your March Madness 2024 brackets, look at the potential matchups along the way to identify potential upsets and spots where the higher seed might struggle against an opponent. It has been estimated that a NCAAB fan with limited knowledge has about a 1 in 120 billion chance of hitting a perfect bracket, so don’t get your hopes up this year.

The best course of action is to consider historical results (trends and averages) to make sure you’re not way outside of the realm of possibilities. Then it’s up to your handicapping or luck to hit the right picks.