Norris Trophy Winners: Who Will Be the Best NHL Defensemen in 2023/24

We’re going to analyze the Norris Trophy winners futures betting market. We’ve looked at the statistics, odds and trends to predict who will be the best NHL defensemen in the 2023/24 season.

Cale Makar (+190) is leading the 2024 Norris Trophy winners odds. The top defensman betting market is one of many we’ll be following all season long in the NHL. Norris Trophy winners can come out of nowhere – I mean, who expected Erik Karlsson to win last year? Not many do again this year with his odds at +2000 to be one of many back-to-back Norris Trophy winners. The Norris Trophy leaders will change throughout the NHL regular season based on performance, results, injuries and more.

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What Is the NHL Norris Trophy?

The NHL Norris Trophy (James Norris Memorial Trophy) is awarded annually to the National Hockey League’s top “defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position”.

The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association votes on Norris Trophy winners. The trophy is named after the longtime owner of the Detroit Red Wings, James E. Norris. Bobby Orr has the most Norris trophies, winning it eight seasons in a row (1968–75). Nicklas Lidstrom and Doug Harvey have won the award seven times, with Ray Bourque taking home the hardware five times.

There have been 69 Norris Trophy winners (32 different NHL defensemen) since the award started back in 1953-54. Red Kelly (Detroit Red Wings) was the first Norris Trophy winner in the NHL. Only two defencemen in the history of the NHL have won the Norris and Hart (MVP) in the same year. Orr and Chris Pronger.

2024 NHL Norris Trophy Winner Odds

Here are the 2024 NHL Norris Trophy winner odds for the top 15 defensemen:

Makar is the favorite in NHL Norris odds, but we’ve seen some longshots crowned Norris Trophy winners in recent years. Not many expected Karlsson (+8000 odds) to win the 2023 Norris Trophy. Makar was the preseason favorite (+400 odds) to be the 2022 Norris Trophy winner and he cashed, but Fox in 2021 (+3500 odds) and Josi in 2020 (+1600 odds) weren’t priced among the Norris Trophy leaders to start the season.

There has also been a recent trend where offensive production weighs heavily with voters. The last five Norris Trophy winners have finished in the top two in points for defensemen. 

Historically, Norris Trophy winners played on teams going to the NHL playoffs. Fox (2021) was the first to win this ice hockey award without his team making the playoffs. Karlsson (2023) won without his team making the playoffs as well. Remaining healthy has essentially been a prerequisite for winning this award.

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Norris Trophy Winners – Top Contenders for 2024

Let’s discuss the top contenders to be Norris Trophy winners (priced at +2000 odds or below).

Makar (+190) should be favored, but his odds are short. Makar has been among the best defensemen in the NHL since entering the league. He has finished 9th (2020), 2nd (2021), 1st (2022) and 3rd (2023) in Norris Trophy voting. He was third in voting last year (28.21% of the votes) despite missing time due to multiple injuries. He played in 60 games last season (17 goals and 49 assists for 66 points).

Fox (+500) isn’t a bruiser (25 hits last season) and he’s undersized. He’s still one of the best defensemen in the NHL. He finished runner-up in Norris Trophy voting last season and he won the award in 2021. He played all 82 games last season (12 goals and 60 assists for 72 points). He had a +/- of +28.

Dahlin (+800) turned a corner last season. He earned Norris Trophy votes for the first time in his career (finished 8th in voting). He had a positive +/- for the first time in his career (+12). Dahlin finished with 15 goals and 58 assists for 73 points in 78 games. He was on the ice for an average of 25:48 per game.

D-Men That Offer Value Farther Down the List

Hughes (+1400) and Heiskanen (+1400) have never finished in the top 5 in Norris Trophy voting. Neither will be Norris Trophy winners this season. McAvoy (+1400) finished 5th in voting (2021) and 4th in voting (2022) for the Norris Trophy. McAvoy is a great defenseman, but he doesn’t move the needle offensively as much as the other top contenders. McAvoy had 56 points in 2021/22 and 52 points last season.

Josi (+1800) is an offensive force, he exploded for 96 points in 2021/22 (23 goals and 73 assists). Josi won this award in 2020. He had 59 points (18 goals and 41 assists) last season. Karlsson (+2000) won this award last season after exploding for 101 points (25 goals and 76 assists). It was the third time he won the award. He had a +/- of -26 (2nd worst +/- in his career), but his offense won him the award.

As we get farther into the season, we will update Norris Trophy odds, throwing in some in-season future bets. We’ll keep our finger on the pulse on the blueline in the National Hockey League all season. Be on the lookout for future updates and more hockey picks.

Norris Trophy Winners – Longshots for 2024

It was just last season that Karlsson won the Norris Trophy as a preseason longshot.

Dougie Hamilton (+2500) finished 6th in Norris Trophy voting last season. He set a career-best in goals (22) and finished with 74 points. He had a +/- of +23 and played in all 82 games for the Devils.

John Morrissey (+3000) was 5th in voting for the Norris Trophy last season. It was the first time he earned votes for the award. He set career-highs in goals (16), assists (60) and average time on ice (24:14).

Victor Hedman (+3000) had a down year last season by his standards. After finishing in the top three in Norris Trophy voting for six consecutive seasons, he finished 15th in voting last season. Hedman had 49 points (9 goals and 40 assists) in 76 games. He’ll need more offensive production to win the award.

2024 Norris Trophy Odds Updates

We’ll be providing updates on NHL Norris Trophy odds throughout the season. The Norris Trophy leaders are changing regularly. Bookmark this page to track NHL Norris odds. We’ll update this page monthly.

(July 1st 2023): Cale Makar (+190) and Adam Fox (+500) are the Norris Trophy favorites. Rasmus Dahlin (+800) is the only other defensemen with Norris Trophy odds below +1000. Will one of these three contenders emerge as Norris Trophy winners this season? Only time will tell.

(October 23rd 2023): Makar (+240) is still leading the odds for NHL Norris Trophy winners after the start of the season. Makar has six points (two goals) in five games. Fox (+700) and Dahlin (+700) are still Norris Trophy leaders. Both Fox and Dahlin have five points in five games. Miro Heiskanen (+850), Quinn Hughes (+1000) and Roman Josi (+1100) have all seen their odds drop when looking at Norris trophy winners. Josh Morrissey (+1500) has opened the season with six points in five games. Jake Sanderson (+4500) wasn’t priced in the top 20 on NHL Norris Trophy odds to start the season, but he’s now in the top 15 after starting the season with six points in five games. The offensive production from Norris Trophy leaders is incredible to start the season and it’s going to take a bit of time for the best defensemen to start separating themselves from the rest of the pack.

(December 19th 2023): Quinn Hughes (+110) is now leading the NHL Norris Trophy winners market after opening up at +1400 during the preseason. Hughes leads all NHL defensemen in goals (9), assists (30) and points (39). Makar (+190) has seen his odds shorten a bit more since our last update. Makar is tied for second in goals among defensemen (8), second in assists (29) and second in points (37). Evan Bouchard (+1000) is third in the Norris Trophy futures market after opening up at +5000 odds. Bouchard has eight goals and 24 assists. He’s tied for third in points (32) among defensemen.

Quinn Hughes’ Norris Trophy Odds Continue to Shorten

(February 7th 2024): Quinn Hughes (-165) remains the leader in NHL Norris Trophy odds. Cale Makar (+170) is the only other defensemen with odds below +2500, which means this is now a two-player race unless both superstars end up injured. Hughes is ranked first in points (64), first in assists (52) and he’s tied for third in goals (12). Makar has 60 points (2nd), 47 assists (2nd) and 13 goals (T1). Hughes and Makar will continue battling it out to become Norris Trophy winners. The three NHL defensemen with +2500 odds are Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard and Victor Hedman.

2024 Norris Trophy Predictions

Makar has missed games in every season he has played in the NHL. Makar isn’t 100% this offseason and his NHL Norris odds are too low to bet on despite being the best offensive defenseman in the league.

Can Karlsson score close to 100 points again with the Penguins? Karlsson has only had 80+ points in two seasons (2015/16 and 2022/23), so I wouldn’t bank on it. I’m betting on Fox to win the Norris Trophy. Fox is among the Norris Trophy leaders, but his Norris Trophy odds are still offering value (+500).

Fox is an offensive threat and arguably the most important player on the Rangers. They brought in a new coaching staff, with Peter Laviolette taking over as the head coach. With better coaching, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Fox explodes offensively and scores 90+ points during the regular season if he avoids injury.

Best Bet: Adam Fox (+500)

Past Norris Trophy Winners

Here are the last ten Norris Trophy winners by year:

Seven of the last eight Norris Trophy winners have been first-time winners of the award. Karlsson is the only defenseman to win the Norris Trophy multiple times in the last 13 NHL seasons. With that being said, predicting Norris Trophy winners has been tough recently, as a new winner has emerged most years. For example, the 2022 Norris Trophy winner (Cale Makar) is a first-time winner.

Analyzing Norris Trophy winners by year doesn’t provide us with any actionable trends to target.