Our 1st Look at Super Bowl LVIII

The San Francisco 49ers will play the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. This is a rematch from Super Bowl LIV four years ago, which was won by the Chiefs in Miami (31-20).

This year’s Super Bowl will be hosted at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.

So, how did these two teams get here?

The Chiefs defeated the Dolphins (26-7), Bills (27-24) and Ravens (17-10). The Chiefs’ last two wins have been on the road and they were underdogs in both games. The 49ers had a Wild Card bye. The Niners have defeated the Packers (24-21) and Lions (34-31) to advance to Super Bowl LVIII.

Opening Super Bowl LVIII Odds

We’ve already seen some early line movement for Super Bowl LVIII odds.

The 49ers opened up as -2.5 point favorites on Sunday night after the Conference Championships. The point spread has been bet down to 49ers -1 at most NFL betting sites already.

The game total opened at 47.5 points and there hasn’t been any line movement yet.

Here are the Super Bowl LVIII odds:

• Moneyline: 49ers (-118) vs. Chiefs (-102)

• Point Spread: 49ers -1 (-108) vs. Chiefs +1 (-112)

• Game Total: Over 47.5 Points (-112) vs. Under 47.5 Points (-108)

The 49ers (14-5) are 9-10 ATS and have an over/under record of 10-8-1 this season, while the Chiefs (14-6) are 12-8 ATS and have an over/under record of 7-13 this season. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS (O/U: 1-2) and the 49ers are 0-2 ATS (O/U: 1-1) in the NFL playoffs this season.

San Francisco had +1000 opening odds to win Super Bowl LVIII (Chiefs +600) before the season started.

Super Bowl LVIII Betting Trends

We’re going to analyze some Super Bowl LVIII betting trends now to help us predict this game.

• Historical Betting Results: Since Super Bowl XLIV (2010), favorites are 5-8 (4-9 ATS) in the Super Bowl (Super Bowl XLIX was a pick’em) and underdogs are 2-1 (3-0 ATS) the last three years. The over/under record is split at 7-7 in the last 14 Super Bowls.

• Repeat Winners: The Chiefs will look to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New England Patriots (2003 and 2004 NFL seasons). Only eight teams have ever won the NFL Super Bowl in consecutive seasons throughout history, making it a rare feat.

• AFC vs. NFC: Since Super Bowl XLVII (2013), AFC teams are 7-4 (6-4 ATS) against NFC teams in the championship game. However, NFC teams have won two of the last three Super Bowls.

• Upsets: The Chiefs are only the ninth team to pull off upsets in the Divisional Round and the Conference Championship in the last 20 years. Six of the previous eight won the Super Bowl.

• Team Results: The Chiefs are making their sixth Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City are 3-2 in the Super Bowl, with wins in 1970, 2020 and 2023 (losses in 1967 and 2021). San Francisco are making their eighth Super Bowl appearance. SF are 5-2 in the Super Bowl, but they’ve lost their last two appearances (2013 and 2020). The 49ers last Super Bowl win was in 1995.

Top Performers to Target on Super Bowl Player Props

The 49ers are loaded on offense, but the Chiefs have the edge at the most important position (QB).

Here are the top playoff performers on both teams to target on Super Bowl LVIII player props:

• QB Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has gone 70/103 (68.0%) for 718 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs in the NFL playoffs. Mahomes is 14-3 in the playoffs and has thrown for 300+ yards five times.

• RB Isiah Pacheco: After rushing for 935 yards and 7 TDs in the regular season (66.8 RYPG), Pacheco has 254 rushing yards and 3 TDs in the playoffs (84.7 RYPG). Pacheco has scored a TD in six of his last seven games, which includes a TD in each playoff game this season.

• TE Travis Kelce: Kelce has hauled in 23/27 targets in the playoffs for 262 yards and 3 TDs. He just passed Jerry Rice for the most receptions in NFL playoff history (156).

• WR Rashee Rice: The rookie is an X-factor in Super Bowl LVIII. Rice has hauled in 20/25 targets for 223 yards and 1 TD. The Chiefs are 5-1 when Rice has 70+ receiving yards this season.

• QB Brock Purdy: Purdy has gone 43/70 (61.4%) for 519 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the playoffs. Purdy is 4-1 in the playoffs in his career and he has a 98.2 passer rating in those games.

• RB Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey has done it all for the 49ers. He has 188 rushing yards and 4 TDs (94.0 RYPG), plus 11 receptions for 72 yards in the NFL playoffs this season. The Chiefs are 8-0 when holding opponents to under 110 rushing yards this season.

• WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle: These three players on SF are all averaging between 50.0 – 56.5 receiving yards per game in the playoffs. Aiyuk and Kittle each have one TD. Will one of these three explode to help the Niners win Super Bowl LVIII?

49ers vs. Chiefs Stats Comparison

Here’s how the 49ers and Chiefs matchup against each other on paper for Super Bowl LVIII:

• Points Scored: 49ers 28.9 PPG (2nd) vs. Chiefs 22.1 PPG (15th)
• Passing Yards (OFF): 49ers 257.2 PYPG (4th) vs. Chiefs 244.8 PYPG (7th)
• Rushing Yards (OFF): 49ers 139.7 RYPG (3rd) vs. Chiefs 108.3 RYPG (18th)
• Points Allowed: 49ers 18.4 PPG (3rd) vs. Chiefs 16.8 PPG (2nd)
• Passing Yards (DEF): 49ers 215.6 PYPG (13th) vs. Chiefs 181.5 PYPG (4th)
• Rushing Yards (DEF): 49ers 97.0 RYPG (5th) vs. Chiefs 113.2 RYPG (T16)
• Takeaways: 49ers 28 (T5) vs. Chiefs 17 (T27)
• Giveaways: 49ers 18 (T6) vs. Chiefs 28 (T23)

On paper, the 49ers have the edge in six of the eight categories we examined above. The Chiefs have the best defense they have had in the Mahomes era, though and that could play a big role in this matchup.

San Francisco were also ranked first in yards per play differential (1.63) after the regular season. KC were ranked fourth (0.82) thanks in large part to their defense ranking fifth in yards per play allowed (4.71).

Expert Super Bowl LVIII Predictions

This is our first look at Super Bowl LVIII. We’ll be publishing Super Bowl content for the next two weeks in the lead up to the big game on Sunday, February 11th 2024. We have dozens of handicappers releasing expert Super Bowl LVIII predictions, but you’ll need a Sports Hub account to access all of the plays.