UFC 290 Picks, Odds and Preview

We have lots of UFC 290 picks for the pay-per-view (PPV) card on Saturday. The event will be hosted at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and will feature two title fights.

Alexander Volkanovski will fight Yair Rodriguez for the featherweight title in the main event and Brandon Moreno will fight Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title in the co-main event.

UFC 290 Preview

When: Saturday, July 8th 2023

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: Early Prelims (6:30 PM ET) / Prelims (8:00 PM ET) / Main Card (10:00 PM ET)

Watch: ESPN/ESPN+ (Prelims) / Pay-Per-View (Main Card)

There are ten ranked fighters scheduled to fight at UFC 290, including some of the best fighters in the world. One downside for this event is there are a lot of big favorites. The smallest favorite on the main card is Moreno (-210). There are only three fights where the favorite is priced below -200 odds.

The UFC 290 weigh-ins just finished. We were waiting a while for a couple fighters to hit the scales. All of the fighters made weight except for Jalin Turner. Turner weighed in at 158 pounds (two pounds over). He was fined 20% of his purse, but the Turner vs. Hooker fight will still continue as scheduled. Visit our profile at SWJ Sports for our full card and all other sports picks.

Expert UFC 290 Picks

I went 4-4 (-$312) at UFC Vegas 76 last weekend. I had a bad read on a couple favorites on the prelims and was unable to dig myself out of the hole. It was a reminder to be cautious with anything priced near -200 odds in the UFC, as one or two losses can derail an entire fight card quickly. With so many big favs on this fight card, I’m going to look at alternative markets for my UFC 290 picks this weekend. 

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction

• Fight Odds: Volkanovski (-370) vs. Rodriguez (+280)

Volkanovski (25-2) moved up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev in his last fight, but he lost a close five-round decision. Prior to the loss, he was 12-0 in the UFC. He still hasn’t lost at featherweight.

Rodriguez (15-3-0-1) lost a five-round decision to Max Holloway in 2021, but he defeated Brian Ortega (R1 TKO) in 2022 and Josh Emmett (R2 Submission) earlier this year. Rodriguez averages 4.78 SLpM and 4.03 SApM. He’s explosive, powerful and there’s a chance he can land a knockout.

Volkanovski has been knocked out once, but that was back in 2013 when he was fighting in Australia (AFC). Volkanovski averages 6.35 SLpM, 3.40 SApM and 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. He hasn’t utilized his wrestling as much recently, but he should early in this fight to deplete Rodriguez’s cardio.

I don’t rate Rodriguez anywhere near Volkanovski. The Aussie will also be motivated after losing his previous fight. However, there’s no value on Volkanovski to win straight-up.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction

• Fight Odds: Moreno (-210) vs. Pantoja (+170)

Moreno (21-6-2) and Pantoja (25-5) have history. Pantoja is 2-0 against Moreno, but those fights were in 2016 (exhibition) and 2018 (UFC Fight Night 129). Moreno is 7-1-2 since the 2018 loss to Pantoja. He’s coming off back-to-back knockout victories against Kai Kara-France and Deiveson Figueiredo.

Pantoja is 3-0 since 2021 with his last two wins coming by submission. However, the competition he has fought isn’t on Moreno’s level. Pantoja averages more strikes (4.25 SLpM vs. 3.55 SLpM) and absorbs more strikes (3.38 SApM vs. 3.19 SApM). Moreno will have a 3” reach advantage (70” vs. 67”).

Moreno needs to remain calm in the first couple rounds of this fight. Pantoja has a grappling edge, but he uses a lot of energy early in his fights. He also doesn’t have any experience going over three rounds.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker Prediction

• Fight Odds: Turner (-300) vs. Hooker (+230)

Turner (13-6) is big for lightweight. He’s explosive, has strong grappling and can put most guys to sleep with a single punch. Hooker (22-12) has been fighting in the UFC for almost a decade, but he has fallen on hard times. Hooker is 2-4 in his last six fights and he was stopped in three of those losses.

Between 2020 and 2022, Turner was 5-0 in the UFC with all wins by stoppage. He’s coming off a loss to Mateusz Gamrot (split decision), but Gamrot is a beast. Turner is the more active striker (5.63 SLpM vs. 4.83 SLpM) and will have a small reach advantage (2”). Turner has been knocked out three times in his career and Hooker has 11 TKO/KO wins, but Turner is one of my best UFC 290 picks.

Best Bet: Turner to Win Inside the Distance (-160)

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield Prediction

• Fight Odds: Crute (-145) vs. Menifield (+115)

Crute (12-3-1) is 0-2-1 in his last three fights. Menifield (13-3-1) is 4-1-1 in his last six fights. These guys just fought at UFC 284 and the bout ended in a draw. Menifield won the striking battle (56 vs. 31), but he was taken down six times by Crute. Crute now has a blueprint for winning this fight.

Menifield will look to knockout his opponent. He has 10 TKO/KO wins. Prior to the draw against Crute, he had won his previous two fights by TKO/KO in the first round. Menifield has 75% takedown defense, but Crute averages 5.19 takedowns per 15 minutes. This fight will come down to Crute’s wrestling.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar Prediction

• Fight Odds: Ross (+120) vs. Aguilar (-150)

Ross (12-7) lost his UFC debut to Kleydson Rodrigues by TKO (R1). Aguilar (8-2) lost his UFC debut to Tatsuro Taira by submission (R1). Both guys need a win and have contrasting styles. Ross is a volume striker (6.57 SLpM) with six TKO/KO wins, while Aguilar is a grappler with six submission wins.

Best Bet: LOGIN TO ACCESS PICK

Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics Prediction

• Fight Odds: Kirk (+125) vs. Ribovics (-155)

Kirk (12-5) is 1-1 in the UFC. He won his debut against Makwan Amirkhani by decision, but he lost his latest fight against Damon Jackson by submission (R2). Ribovics (11-1) lost his UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov by decision. Kirk has a huge reach advantage (75” vs. 69”), but his cardio is questionable. If he’s forced to exchange strikes with Ribovics, he’s going to end up getting knocked out.

Best Bet: Ribovics ML (-155)

UFC 290 Odds for Every Fight

Here are the UFC 290 odds for every fight:

How to Access UFC 290 Picks at Sports Hub

Want to see all of our expert UFC 290 picks? You need a free Sports Hub account. After signing in, click on “Games” on the left sidebar and then search for “Fighting” under categories. This will bring up all of our UFC 290 picks for this weekend. You can also find my picks on my profile page (SWJ Sports).