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We have uncovered the best UFC 309 predictions for this Saturday (November 16th 2024). The UFC will be back in New York City for the eleventh time (last event in NYC was UFC 295 in November 2023).
Jon Jones will put his UFC heavyweight title on the line against Stipe Miocic (#8 HW). You can’t blame Miocic for accepting one last big payday, but Jones is getting a lot of heat for ducking Tom Aspinall.
Charles Oliveira (#2 LW) will fight Michael Chandler (#7 LW) in the co-main event. Chandler hasn’t fought since losing to Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 in November 2022 by third-round submission.
UFC 309 Preview
- When: Saturday, November 16th 2024
- Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City
- Start Time: 6:00 PM ET (Early Prelims) / 8:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)
- Watch: UFC Fight Pass, ESPN, ESPN+ and Pay-Per-View
UFC 309 isn’t the deepest fight card for a PPV event. Everyone is looking forward to seeing Jones in the cage, but there aren’t a lot of ranked fighters in action. There are only eight ranked fighters on the card.
Bo Nickal is scheduled to fight on the main card and he should be ranked soon if he keeps winning. He’s the biggest favorite on the card, but he’ll need to jump up in competition in the near future.
Viviane Araujo (#9 WFW) will fight Karine Silva (#11 WFW) on the main card on Saturday night.
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Expert UFC 309 Predictions
The UFC 309 prelims feature several veterans, including Jim Miller and Chris Weidman. Miller is fighting Damon Jackson and Weidman is fighting Eryk Anders. Miller and Weidman are both small underdogs.
Two other exciting fights on the prelims at UFC 309 are Jonathan Martinez (#13 BW) vs. Marcus McGhee and Marcin Tybura (#9 HW) vs. Jhonata Diniz. The two ranked fighters are small underdogs to win.
Let’s jump into our expert UFC 309 predictions, starting with the main event championship fight.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Predictions
- Fight Odds: Jones (-730) vs. Miocic (+490)
Jones (27-1-0-1) hasn’t been very active in recent years. Since 2021, Jones has only fought Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 in March 2023, which he won by first-round submission. Miocic (20-4) hasn’t fought in over three years. At 42 years old, will Miocic have anything in the tank to pose problems for Jones?
Jones will have a 4” reach advantage and his defense is excellent. He has 64% striking defense and 95% takedown defense (TDD). There’s just no way Miocic will be able to win this fight against Jones.
Find out how to bet on this fight by viewing my UFC 309 predictions on my profile page (SWJ Sports).
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Predictions
- Fight Odds: Oliveira (-265) vs. Chandler (+205)
Oliveira (34-10-0-1) is coming off a decision loss against Arman Tsarukyan in April. He has lost two of his last three fights, but he’s still a huge threat. Since 2021, he’s 4-2 and finished his opponent in every win.
Chandler (23-8) has lost three of his last four fights and he was stopped in two of the losses. Chandler lost to Oliveira at UFC 262 in May 2021 by second-round TKO. Can we expect a different result?
Oliveira has a 3” reach advantage. He averages 3.39 SLpM, 3.20 SApM and 2.17 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes. Chandler averages 4.89 SLpM, 4.58 SApM and 2.17 TDs per 15 minutes, but he has better TDD. I’d avoid Chandler until we see him in action, but Oliveira isn’t exciting at these odds either.
See how I’m betting on this fight by logging into your Sports Hub account.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Predictions
- Fight Odds: Nickal (-1240) vs. Craig (+685)
Nickal (6-0) is 3-0 in the UFC, with three stoppage wins, but against relatively weak competition. He has won all six of his fights by stoppage. Craig (17-8-1) has lost four of his last five fights. I’m surprised we haven’t seen Nickal fight tougher competition yet and this should be another easy victory for him.
Nickal averages 7.46 TDs per 15 minutes and Craig has 37% TDD. Craig has been finished seven times. Until Nickal fights some ranked guys, I’m not buying into his hype. Nickal will win by stoppage, though.
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva Predictions
- Fight Odds: Araujo (+205) vs. Silva (-265)
Silva (18-4) will look to continue her climb up the rankings. Silva is 4-0 in the UFC, with three submission wins. Araujo (12-6) is 6-5 in the UFC, but just 2-4 in her last six fights. She’s coming off a loss by decision against Natalia Silva. All five of her UFC losses have been by decision, so she’s durable.
Araujo averages 4.11 SLpM, 4.96 SApM and 1.76 TDs per 15 minutes. Silva averages 2.67 SLpM, 3.12 SApM and 3.59 TDS per 15 minutes. Silva should take this fight to the mat.
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Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop Predictions
- Fight Odds: Ruffy (-850) vs. Llontop (+575)
Ruffy (10-1) is scheduled to fight Llontop (14-4) on the UFC 309 main card. Ruffy won his UFC debut by first-round TKO against Jamie Mullarkey. Llontop is 0-2 in the UFC, but has never been knocked out.
Ruffy averages 4.88 SLpM and 3.80 SApM, while Llontop averages 5.38 SLpM and 3.97 SApM. Neither fighter has attempted a takedown yet. Ruffy is a power striker with ten TKO/KO wins.
Can Ruffy knock out Llontop? Get my UFC 309 predictions by viewing my profile (SWJ Sports).
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee Predictions
- Fight Odds: Martinez (+105) vs. McGhee (-135)
Martinez (19-5) is coming off a loss to Jose Aldo (decision), which snapped a six-fight win streak. He has wins against Cub Swanson and Said Nurmagomedov. McGhee (9-1) is 3-0 in the UFC. McGhee has won his three UFC fights by stoppage against Journey Newson, J.P. Buys and Gaston Bolanos.
McGhee averages 5.43 SLpM and 2.52 SApM. He has shown great striking defense (71%). Martinez is averaging 4.54 SLpM and 3.87 SApM. This is going to be a close fight. Martinez is a step up for McGhee, but this is McGhee’s chance to get ranked. In a striking battle, I’m backing McGhee to get the job done.
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders Predictions
- Fight Odds: Weidman (-115) vs. Anders (-115)
Weidman (16-7) is coming off a technical decision win against Bruno Silva. He’s just 2-4 since 2018 and he hasn’t won two consecutive fights in almost ten years. Anders (16-8-0-1) is 2-3 in his last five fights, but he’s coming off a win against Jamie Pickett (decision). He hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2019.
Anders averages 3.41 SLpM, 4.17 SApM and 1.79 TDs per 15 minutes. Weidman averages 3.18 SLpM, 3.22 SApM and 3.44 TDs per 15 minutes. Look for both guys to try and establish the ground game.
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Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson Predictions
- Fight Odds: Miller (+135) vs. Jackson (-165)
Miller (37-18-0-1) is still fighting. He’s 1-1 this year, but coming off a loss against Bobby Green (decision). Jackson (23-7-1-1) is 1-3 dating back to last year, but his last three fights have gone the distance.
Miller is more of a finisher. In his last nine wins, he has finished every opponent. His last five losses have all ended by decision. Miller averages 2.99 SLpM, 3.50 SApM and 1.53 TDs per 15 minutes. Jackson is averaging 2.90 SLpM, 3.47 SApM and 2.34 TDs per 15 minutes. Both guys have weak TDD.
I’ll be targeting the round total for my UFC 309 predictions for this fight.
David Onama vs. Roberto Romero Predictions
- Fight Odds: Onama (-1100) vs. Romero (+750)
Lucas Almeida pulled out of his fight this weekend against Onama (12-2) due to medical issues. Onama will now fight Romero (8-3-1) who will be making his UFC debut. Onama is 4-2 since joining the UFC.
Onama averages 5.04 SLpM and 5.10 SApM. Onama has finished 11 of his 12 opponents. Romero will struggle on short notice in this fight. Onama has power and he’s an active striker. I have little doubt that Onama will win, but how will he win? My best bet is Onama by TKO/KO for my UFC 309 predictions.
Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz Predictions
- Fight Odds: Tybura (-150) vs. Diniz (+125)
Tybura (25-9) has struggled against top heavyweights, but he has plenty of wins as well. His last three fights have ended in the opening round. Diniz (8-0) has started his UFC career on a 2-0 run.
Diniz averages 4.09 SLpM and 2.75 SApM. Tybura averages 3.57 SLpM, 3.34 SApM and 1.42 TDs per 15 minutes. Tybura has had success when he can take his opponent down. Both guys have shown the ability to go the distance. This is going to be a big test for Diniz and he’s a live underdog on Saturday.
My best bet will be targeting the round total. Join Sports Hub to access our expert UFC 309 predictions.
There are three more fights scheduled for the early prelims. Mickey Gall will fight Ramiz Brahimaj in what should be a close fight. Bassil Hafez is scheduled to fight Oban Elliott. The first fight of the night is going to feature two women flyweights. Veronica Hardy is favored to defeat Eduarda Moura.
From a betting perspective, UFC 309 features a lot of one-sided fights that are unlikely to be close, which means we’re going to need to get a bit creative with our UFC 309 predictions for this weekend.
UFC 309 Odds
Here are the latest UFC 309 odds for all 13 fights scheduled for Saturday’s card in New York City:
- Jon Jones (-730) vs. Stipe Miocic (+490)
- Charles Oliveira (-265) vs. Michael Chandler (+205)
- Bo Nickal (-1240) vs. Paul Craig (+685)
- Viviane Araujo (+205) vs. Karine Silva (-265)
- Mauricio Ruffy (-850) vs. James Llontop (+575)
- Jonathan Martinez (+105) vs. Marcus McGhee (-135)
- Chris Weidman (-115) vs. Eryk Anders (-115)
- Jim Miller (+135) vs. Damon Jackson (-165)
- David Onama (-1100) vs. Roberto Romero (+750)
- Marcin Tybura (-150) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+125)
- Mickey Gall (-140) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+110)
- Bassil Hafez (+195) vs. Oban Elliott (-255)
- Veronica Hardy (-145) vs. Eduarda Moura (+115)
The top of the UFC 309 fight card is exciting. Jones will always draw a big crowd, but it’d be way better if he was fighting Aspinall. The co-main event is interesting, though, as Chandler will look to build some momentum after a long layoff. We’re your best source for winning UFC 309 predictions this weekend.
