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We’re back with our expert UFC 312 predictions for this weekend. UFC 312 is back in Sydney, Australia for the first time since September 2023. The event will be hosted at the Qudos Bank Arena.
Dricus du Plessis will look to defend the UFC middleweight title against Sean Strickland in the main event.
Zhang Weili is also in action in the co-main event against Tatiana Suarez. Suarez is undefeated, but she hasn’t fought since August 2023. This should be a solid test for Weili. In fact, Suarez is favored to win the UFC strawweight title currently. Only Rose Namajunas has defeated Weili in the UFC, though.
UFC 312 Preview
- When: Saturday, February 8th 2024
- Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
- Start Time: 6:00 PM ET (Early Prelims) / 8:00 PM ET (Prelims) / 10:00 PM ET (Main Card)
- Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN / ESPN+ / Pay-Per-View
Hopefully, there are no late pull outs like UFC 311 had for the major fights on the card. With the event in Australia, the UFC is showcasing Australian talent in a lot of the fights. That means the card lacks depth. Apart from the two championship fights, there isn’t another ranked fighter competing this weekend.
The main card will feature Jimmy Crute, Jake Matthews and Justin Tafa (New Zealand).
The other Australians on the card are Jack Jenkins, Tom Nolan, Colby Thicknesse, Jonathan Micallef and Quillan Salkilld. There are also some other intriguing prospects in action this weekend.
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Expert UFC 312 Predictions
The two fights fans want to watch this weekend are the title fights on PPV. The lack of ranked fighters on the card is disappointing, though. What’s more exciting, is that most of the fights are competitive.
There are only three fights with favorites priced above -300 odds. There were a number of underdogs that won in Saudi Arabia last weekend and I expect there will be quite a few upsets in Sydney this weekend.
Let’s jump into my UFC 312 predictions next. You can access all of my plays on my profile (SWJ Sports).
Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland Predictions
- Fight Odds: Du Plessis (-205) vs. Strickland (+165)
Du Plessis (22-2) is a perfect 8-0 in the UFC. DDP defeated Strickland (29-6) by split decision at UFC 297 and will be confident about repeating. Strickland is coming off a win against Paulo Costa by split decision.
DDP averages 6.18 SLpM, 4.85 SApM and 3.04 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes. Strickland is averaging 6.01 SLpM, 4.48 SApM and 0.78 TDs per 15 minutes. In the first head-to-head fight, DDP had four TDs, but Strickland won the striking battle (173 vs. 137). DDP needs to score with his grappling again.
Who am I picking? Sign-up to Sports Hub to access all of our expert UFC 312 predictions.
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez Predictions
- Fight Odds: Weili (-110) vs. Suarez (-120)
Weili (25-3) is on a four-fight win streak. She won her last two fights by decision against Amanda Lemos and Xiaonan Yan. Suarez (10-0) has dealt with numerous injuries throughout her career. In 2023, she went 2-0, with wins against Montana De La Rosa and Jessica Andrade by second-round submissions.
Suarez has had to back out of some recent fights, but she’s now ready to go. Suarez will have a 3” reach advantage. She averages 4.27 SLpM, 1.38 SApM and 6.20 TDs per 15 minutes. Weili averages 2.51 TDs per 15 minutes, 5.66 SLpM and 3.15 SApM. Weili has a striking edge, but Suarez has a grappling edge.
Will Suarez succeed at smothering her opponent to become a UFC champion?
Check out my profile page (SWJ Sports) to access all of my UFC 312 predictions for this weekend.
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira Predictions
- Fight Odds: Tafa (+110) vs. Teixeira (-140)
Tafa (7-4-0-1) is 4-4-0-1 in the UFC and coming off a loss against Karl Williams (Decision). Teixeira (7-0) is making his UFC debut, but expected to make a lot of noise at heavyweight. He has six TKO/KO wins, including against Arthur Lopes on the DWCS. He’s a 6’7” monster, with a huge 83” reach.
Tafa is 6’0” and has a 74” reach, so he’s going to have his hands full. Tafa averages 4.09 SLpM and 5.02 SApM. Teixeira is also a striker, but he’s going to be much more active. Tafa has power (7 TKO/KO wins) and he’s durable, as he has only been knocked out once. This will be an exciting striking battle.
In the limited video I’ve watched of Teixeira, I can’t imagine he’ll lose his debut against Tafa.
We’re getting great UFC 312 odds on the prospect. I also like him to win by TKO/KO.
Best Bet: Tallison Teixeira ML
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato Predictions
- Fight Odds: Crute (+125) vs. Bellato (-155)
Crute (12-4-1) is 0-3-1 since 2021. He last lost to Alonzo Menifield by submission at UFC 290. Bellato (12-2) won his UFC debut against Ihor Potieria by TKO, but that was over a year ago (December 2023).
Bellato averages 6.47 SLpM, 5.90 SApM and 1.09 TDs per 15 minutes. Crute averages 3.68 SLpM, 3.04 SApM and 4.84 TDs per 15 minutes. Crute has been finished in all four of his losses. Bellato is a finisher (7 TKO/KO wins and 4 Submission wins). Crute has solid grappling, but struggles in the stand-up game.
Can Crute utilize his experience to snap his winless streak?
Find out who our experts are picking by accessing our UFC 312 predictions this weekend.
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado Predictions
- Fight Odds: Matthews (-225) vs. Prado (+185)
Matthews (20-7) has alternated wins and losses in his last six UFC fights (3-3). Prado (12-2) is 1-2 in his three UFC fights, losing to Jamie Mullarkey and Daniel Zellhuber by decision. Prado is a power striker and he has six TKO/KO wins. He has won by TKO/KO in his last three victories.
Prado has the ability to end fights quickly with his hands. He averages 4.58 SLpM and 5.66 SApM. He has weak TD defense (25%). Matthews averages 3.38 SLpM, 2.54 SApM and 1.56 TDS per 15 minutes.
Matthews hasn’t fully utilized his grappling lately, which has been problematic. Prado will be hunting for a knockout to get his UFC career back on track after deciding to move up to the welterweight division.
Is Prado one of the live underdogs you should add to your UFC 312 predictions?
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos Predictions
- Fight Odds: Jenkins (+190) vs. Santos (-230)
Jenkins (13-3) is 3-1 in the UFC and coming off a win against Herbert Burns (TKO R3). Santos (11-2) is 1-2 in the UFC, but he won his last fight against Zha Yi (Decision). I’m confused by these odds. Santos has a solid grappling game, but I rate these two fighters closer than the UFC 312 odds indicate.
Santos averages 4.69 SLpM, 4.77 SApM and 3.44 TDs per 15 minutes. He has weak striking defense (47%). Jenkins averages 4.83 SLpM, 2.92 SApM and 2.12 TDs per 15 minutes. Jenkins should win the striking battle and if he can avoid spending too much time on the ground, he has a great shot to win.
Best Bet: Jack Jenkins ML
Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Predictions
- Fight Odds: Nolan (+110) vs. Borshchev (-140)
Nolan (8-1) is 1-2 in the UFC. He lost his debut to Nikolas Motta (TKO R1), but has bounced back with wins against Victor Martinez (TKO R1) and Alex Reyes (Decision). Borshchev (8-4-1) is 3-3-1 in the UFC.
Borshchev won a close split decision against James Llontop last time out, but he has been uninspiring. He’s also 33 years old and Nolan is only 24 years old. Nolan averages 6.68 SLpM and 5.17 SApM, while Borshchev averages 5.40 SLpM and 4.80 SApM. Neither fighter has landed a TD in the UFC.
Both guys have power (Nolan 5 TKO/KO wins / Borshcheb 6 TKO/KO wins). This is a fight where I want to target round totals. I’ll be betting on this fight going over 1.5 rounds (-116 odds).
To find out who I’m picking to win, visit my profile page (SWJ Sports) for all of my UFC 312 predictions.
Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil Predictions
- Fight Odds: Cong (-470) vs. Brasil (+345)
Cong (6-1) is 2-1 in the UFC, but coming off a loss against Gabriella Fernandes (Submission R2). She has amazing striking defense (70%), but she’ll have to watch for submissions. Brasil (10-4-1) defeated Molly McCann (Decision) last time out to move to 2-2 in the UFC. Her last three have gone the distance.
Cong averages 5.81 SLpM, 1.63 SApM and 1.16 TDS per 15 minutes. She also has 100% takedown defense (TDD). Brasil averages 2.94 SLpM, 3.49 SApM and 1.93 TDs per 15 minutes.
Can Brasil test Cong’s submission defense? That’s likely her only path to victory. Cong has been able to piece up her opponents with her striking. These odds aren’t enticing, though. We’ll be identifying the best value bets in alternate markets for this fight. Sign-up to Sports Hub to view all of our UFC 312 predictions.
Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria Predictions
- Fight Odds: Thicknesse (+300) vs. Topuria (-400)
Thickneese (7-0) and Topuria (5-1) are both making their UFC debut. Aleksandre is the older brother of Ilia. He has won his last three fights by TKO/KO. Thicknesse has also finished his last three fights.
We don’t have any statistics for these guys yet, but Topuria is the higher-rated prospect. Thicknesse is younger (25 vs. 29). Topuria has won all five of his fights in the first round. Thicknesse has won his last three fights in the first round, but prior to that he had gone the distance in three consecutive fights.
I expect this fight to end by stoppage and have Topuria winning by TKO/KO in his debut.
Best Bet: Aleksandre Topuria by TKO/KO
There are four fights scheduled for the early prelims at UFC 312.
Rongzhu (25-6) is 4-3 in the UFC and will fight newcomer Kody Steele (7-0). Steele is favored to pick up a win in his debut. Steele has won his last four fights by TKO/KO. Kevin Jousset (10-3) is 2-1 in the UFC after suffering a setback against Bryan Battle in his last fight. He’s favored to get back on track against Jonathan Micallef (7-1) who will be making his promotional debut.
Quillan Salkilld (7-1) is a huge favorite in his UFC debut against Anshul Jubli (7-1). Jubli is 2-1 in the UFC, but he suffered his first loss last time out against Mike Breeden (KO R3). In the opening fight of the night, Hyun Sung Park (9-0) is favored to defeat Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-1).
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UFC 312 Odds
Here are the latest UFC 312 odds for every scheduled fight on the card:
- Dricus Du Plessis (-205) vs. Sean Strickland (+165)
- Zhang Weili (-110) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-120)
- Justin Tafa (+110) vs. Tallison Texeira (-140)
- Jimmy Crute (+125) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-155)
- Jake Matthews (-225) vs. Francisco Prado (+185)
- Jack Jenkins (+190) vs. Gabriel Santos (-230)
- Tom Nolan (+110) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-140)
- Wang Cong (-470) vs. Bruna Brasil (+345)
- Colby Thicknesse (+300) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-400)
- Rongzhu (+180) vs. Kody Steele (-220)
- Jonathan Micallef (+185) vs. Kevin Jousset (-235)
- Quillan Salkilld (-600) vs. Anshul Jubli (+400)
- Hyun Sung Park (-220) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+180)
That wraps up our UFC 312 preview. The card lacks depth, but I’m excited to watch the prospects.
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