UFC Fight Night 238 Predictions, Odds and Preview

We have uncovered the best UFC Fight Night 238 predictions for Saturday. The event will be hosted at UFC Apex in Las Vegas and there are six ranked fighters scheduled to fight on the card.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#12 HW) will fight Shamil Gaziev in the main event. Umar Nurmagomedov (#13 BW) is the biggest favorite (-1215 odds) on the card and I’m excited to see him in action.

Ludovit Klein (-975 odds) is the biggest favorite on the prelims this weekend. There’s no value betting on Nurmagomedov or Klein straight up for my UFC Fight Night 238 predictions at these betting odds. Learn the best ways to bet on fights in our in-depth guide on UFC betting markets.

UFC Fight Night 238 Preview

When: Saturday, March 2nd 2024

Where: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada

Time: 1:30 PM ET (Prelims) / 4:00 PM ET (Main Card)

Watch: ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass

The main card features two flyweight fights with ranked fighters. Alex Perez (#7) will fight #8 Muhammad Mokaev (#8) and Matt Schnell (#9) will fight Steve Erceg (#12) on Saturday evening.

The UFC Fight Night 238 weigh-ins just finished and every fighter made weight. It’s a relatively small card this weekend, as there are only 11 fights scheduled and two of those have massive favorites.

Let’s dig into the fights and identify the best UFC Fight Night 238 predictions for Saturday.

Expert UFC Fight Night 238 Predictions

Get winning UFC Fight Night 238 predictions from our experts here at Sports Hub.

UFC Fight Night 238 isn’t the best card. The highest ranked fighter on the card is #7. Seven fighters are coming off a loss in their last fight and five fighters will be making their UFC debut on Saturday.

Eight of the 11 fights have a favorite priced above -300 as well, which isn’t ideal. We’ll need to analyze the UFC alternate markets (method of victory props, will the fight go the distance or not and round props) to get any value on most of these fights. We could also see some big underdogs cash in this weekend.

Here are my expert UFC Fight Night 238 predictions:

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction

• Fight Odds: Rozenstruik (+145) vs. Gaziev (-175)

Rozenstruik (13-5) is 3-5 in the UFC since 2020. Gaziev (12-0) won his UFC debut by TKO in the second round against Martin Buday. Rozenstruik has a lot of power (12 TKO/KO wins), but weak defense.

Gaziev averages 6.19 SLpM and 0.93 SApM. Rozenstruik averages 2.81 SLpM and 3.15 SApM. Neither heavyweight will look to hit the mat. The UFC wants to push Gaziev, as he’s fighting in a main event in his second career UFC fight. This is a five-round fight, but I’d be shocked if it went the distance.

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Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro Prediction

• Fight Odds: Petrino (-310) vs. Pedro (+240)

Petrino (10-0) is 3-0 in the UFC and his last two wins have been by stoppage. Pedro (10-4) is 3-1 since returning to the UFC in 2022, with three TKO/KO wins. Pedro has improved his power striking.

Pedro averages 3.11 SLpM, 2.53 SApM and 0.94 takedowns (TDs) per 15 minutes. Petrino is averaging 3.07 SLpM, 2.65 SApM and 4.15 TDs per 15 minutes. Petrino has 70% TD accuracy and Pedo has 52% TD defense. Petrino should utilize his grappling early on, as Pedro is known to gas out quickly.

Petrino needs to be cautious on the ground, though, as Pedro has five submission wins.

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Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev Prediction

• Fight Odds: Perez (+260) vs. Mokaev (-340)

Perez (24-7) has lost his last two fights by submission against Figueiredo and Pantoja. Mokaev (11-0-0-1) is 5-0 in the UFC, with four of those wins coming by submission. He only has two TKO/KO wins.

Mokaev only averages 1.12 SLpM (1.19 SApM), but he lands 6.47 TDs per 15 minutes. Perez has 77% TD defense, though. Perez averages 4.67 SLpM, 3.14 SApM and 2.84 TDs per 15 minutes. Mokaev will have a 5” reach advantage. I’ll bite on the obvious play here, which is Mokaev to win by submission.

I’ll also be adding under 2.5 rounds to my UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

Best Bet: Mokaev by Submission (+110) and Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan Prediction

• Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov (-1215) vs. Almakhan (+615)

Nurmagomedov (16-0) is 4-0 in the UFC, with three stoppage wins. Almakhan (14-1) will be making his UFC debut. He has nine TKO/KO wins in his career. Nurmagomedov averages 4.85 SLpM, 0.73 SApM and 4.28 TDs per 15 minutes. He’s hard to hit and his grappling has been impressive up to this point.

This fight is tough to predict, as the moneyline odds offer no value. I have two plays for this fight, but you need to become a Sports Hub member to access all of my UFC Fight Night 238 predictions.

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Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

• Fight Odds: Schnell (+320) vs. Erceg (-440)

Schnell (16-7-0-1) is 2-3-0-1 in his last six UFC fights and he was stopped in all three losses. Erceg (11-1) is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins coming by decision. Erceg has six submission wins and Schnell has lost by submission twice. Erceg averages 4.27 SLpM, 3.57 SApM and 2.00 TDs per 15 minutes.

Schnell averages 4.24 SLpM, 4.46 SApM and 0.63 TDs per 15 minutes. Schnell throws a lot of punches, but he isn’t the most accurate (39%). This fight should be more competitive than the odds indicate.

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Aiemann Zahabi vs. Javid Basharat Prediction

• Fight Odds: Zahabi (+500) vs. Basharat (-800)

Zahabi (10-2) is on a three-fight win streak, with two wins coming by knockout. Basharat (14-0-0-1) has three decision wins in the UFC and his last fight was ruled a no contest. Basharat averages 5.65 SLpM, 2.50 SApM and 2.09 TDs per 15 minutes, while Zahabi averages 3.04 SLpM and 3.40 SApM.

Both fighters have great striking defense, but Basharat should have the speed advantage. Zahabi could land a TKO/KO, but how else can he win? Bashrat is better overall and has a wrestling edge.

One of my best UFC Fight Night 238 predictions is on Basharat to win by decision.

Best Bet: Basharat by Decision (-150)

Vinicius Oliveira vs. Benardo Sopaj Prediction

• Fight Odds: Oliveira (-135) vs. Sopaj (+105)

Oliveira (19-3) and Sopaj (11-2) will be making their UFC debut on Saturday. Oliveira displayed his power on the Contender Series and he has 15 TKO/KO wins. Sopaj has seven TKO/KO victories.

Oliveira will have a 4” reach advantage. As long as he’s patient, he should win this fight. However, he has been impatient in the past. He has also been knocked out three times and Sopaj has power to finish.

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That wraps up my UFC Fight Night 238 predictions for Saturday’s MMA card.

UFC Fight Night 238 Odds

Here are the UFC Fight Night 238 odds for all 11 fights:

• Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+145) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-175)
• Vitor Petrino (-315) vs. Tyson Pedro (+245)
• Alex Perez (+260) vs. Muhammad Mokaev (-340)
• Umar Nurmagomedov (-1215) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (+615)
• Matt Schnell (+320) vs. Steve Erceg (-440)
• Eryk Anders (-485) vs. Jamie Pickett (+335)
• Vinicius Oliveira (-135) vs. Benardo Sopaj (+105)
• Aiemann Zahabi (+500) vs. Javid Basharat (-800)
• Christian Leroy Duncan (-320) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+245)
• Ludovit Klein (-975) AJ Cunningham (+525)
• Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-180) vs. Loik Radzhabov (+150)

I have released 16 UFC Fight Night 238 predictions already and may add more before the fights. There are a lot of big favorites, but we’ll be utilizing UFC props betting markets to extract the most value.