NFL Divisional Round Preview
We have four great games scheduled for the NFL Divisional Round this weekend. We will analyze the notable injuries and betting trends before jumping into our NFL Divisional Round picks.
All eight teams are dealing with injuries at this point of the season.
The Ravens hope TE Mark Andrews (ankle) is good to go, but his status is uncertain. DB Marlon Humphrey (calf) and LB Del’Shawn Phillips (shoulder) are also questionable on Baltimore. The Texans are banged up at WR (Robert Woods and John Metchie have been limited). Houston is also banged up on the defensive line (Jonathan Greenard, Jerry Hughes, and Sheldon Rankins have DNP designations).
Green Bay WRs Jayden Reed (chest) and Christian Watson (hamstring) are expected to play, but RB AJ Dillon and LB Kingsley Enagbare are questionable. For the 49ers, DE Clelin Ferrell is at risk of missing this game, but LB Dre Greenlaw and DB Logan Ryan should suit up. Tampa Bay is relatively healthy, but keep an eye on WR Chris Godwin’s (knee) status. The Lions have no notable injuries.
The Chiefs’ DT Derrick Nnadi (triceps) is questionable, but everyone else should play. On Buffalo, WR Gabe Davis, DB Taylor Rapp, DB Christian Benford, LB Terrel Bernard, and LB Baylon Spector are all questionable and at risk of not playing. The Bills defense needs some of these guys to suit up.
Keep an eye on the injury reports as the week progresses before placing NFL Divisional Round picks.
On Wild Card Weekend
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends
Underdogs spoiled the party in the Wild Card Round. Favorites went 3-3 (2-4 ATS) in the WC Round, and the game total over/under record was split (3-3). Will underdogs fare as well this weekend?
Will the Ravens and 49ers dominate? You might think so, but since 2002, teams coming off a bye in the playoffs are 35-41-2 ATS. The Ravens and 49ers are both -9.5 favorites currently.
The 49ers have won 12 games this season, and 11 of those wins were by double-digits. SF are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games in January. Baltimore might be a better first-half play, as the Ravens went 14-3 ATS in the opening half this season. Houston has gone under in the first half in every road game this season (Texans allow 5.8 points per 1st half on the road, and Ravens allow 7.0 points per 1st half).
Lamar Jackson is also just 1-3 (1-3 ATS) as a home favorite in the playoffs (all four games went under). However, dome teams (Houston) struggle when playing in the cold in the NFL playoffs. In the last 20 years, dome teams are 2-6 in the playoffs when playing in sub-30-degree weather.
Could the Bucs be offering value as underdogs? Baker Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in the NFL playoffs, and the Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. The Chiefs are always tough as underdogs, as well. Kansas City are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Even more impressive is the fact Patrick Mahomes has gone 7-3 (8-1-1 ATS) in his career when his team is an underdog.
Mahomes is also undefeated (4-0) in his career in the Wild Card and Divisional Round.
Since 2011, underdogs that won in the WC Round are 1-17 (8-10 ATS) in the Divisional Round.
Here are the betting results from the last three NFL Divisional Rounds:
- 2022-23 NFL Divisional Round: Favorites: 3-1 (2-2 ATS) / Over/Under: 0-4
- 2021-22 NFL Divisional Round: Favorites: 1-3 (1-3 ATS) / Over/Under: 2-2
- 2020-21 NFL Divisional Round: Favorites: 3-1 (2-2 ATS) / Over/Under: 1-3
The biggest NFL Divisional Round betting trend in recent years has been to target funders. Unders have gone 9-3 (75%) in the last three Divisional Rounds. In that timeframe, the favorites are 7-5 (5-7 ATS).
Keep these betting trends in mind when making your NFL Divisional Round picks this weekend.
Divisional Round NFL Picks
Best Pick ATS
The Houston Texans have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season, and that momentum carried over into the postseason as well. Houston will now be on the road in Baltimore, and the Ravens have been the best team in the NFL this season.
Lamar Jackson is too good, and he will find some serious holes in the defense for the Texans. This game might be close for a half, but Baltimore will pull away and win this game by double-digits.
Best Moneyline Pick
It does feel hard to pick an upset for the Divisional Round of NFL Playoff games, but there is one team you will want to focus on. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs know how to get the job done, but they are going to have a tough task in Buffalo this weekend.
The Bills come into this game with a ton of momentum, but they are also a team that has struggled to beat the Chiefs in the postseason. Buffalo will come up short yet again as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will advance to the AFC Championship Game again.
Best Total Pick
The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers meet up in a big matchup in the NFC, and this could end up being a great game. Green Bay just went into Dallas and upset the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, but their task will now get much tougher in this matchup.
San Francisco has been dominant on both sides of the ball this season, but their defense will set the tone in this game. Green Bay will try to slow down the pace by running the football, and this game is going under 50 points.
Best Player Prop
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to visit the Detroit Lions in an NFC Divisional Round Game, and this has the potential to be a great battle. Both teams were able to ride their starting quarterbacks to a big win, but Jared Goff of the Lions was the most impressive.
Tampa Bay has a defense that can get after the quarterback, but Detroit will counter by having a great group of wide receivers. Look for Goff and the Lions to stay hot in the passing game, as Goff will throw at least two touchdown passes.
Best Team Prop
Baltimore is a team that wants to run the football, and they will do that to the Houston Texans in this game. The Ravens should also have an early lead in this game, allowing them to keep the ball on the ground to chew off some clock.
This Texans defense will have a really tough time trying to slow down Lamar Jackson, and the Ravens will rack up the yards on the ground. It will be a dominant performance overall for Baltimore, but most of those yards will come on the ground.
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NFL Divisional Round FAQ
What is the NFL Divisional Round?
The NFL Divisional Round is the second round of the NFL playoffs, following the Wild Card round. It features the top eight teams (four from each conference) competing to advance to the Conference Championships.
How are teams selected for the Divisional Round?
Teams are selected based on their regular season performance. The top four teams from each conference (AFC and NFC) that had a bye during the Wild Card round automatically advance to the Divisional Round, where they face the winners of the Wild Card games.
When does the Divisional Round take place?
The Divisional Round typically occurs in mid-January, one week after the Wild Card round and a week before the Conference Championships.
How are home-field advantages determined?
Home-field advantage is given to the higher-seeded team. The top seeds from each conference, who had byes in the Wild Card round, will host the lowest-seeded teams that advanced from the Wild Card round.