NFL Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs are finally upon us. After a wild 18 weeks, the NFL regular season is finally in the books, and it’s now time for the postseason as the wild card round is upon us.
Although there will be some familiar faces in the playoffs this year, like the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys, there will also be some new blood. Of the four teams in NFL history that have never been to a Super Bowl, three of them, Houston, Cleveland, and Detroit, are in the playoffs this year. Unfortunately for the Browns and Texans, they’ll be facing each other, which means one of those teams will go home after the first round.
As for Detroit, the Lions will be hosting their first playoff game in 30 years, and in a twist, they’ll be facing someone they’re very familiar with: Matthew Stafford. With Jared Goff starting for the Lions, the game between Los Angeles and Detroit will mark the first time in playoff history that both starting quarterbacks are facing their former team. That game will go down on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on NBC.
On Wild Card Weekend
Wild Card Weekend – Point Spreads, Moneylines & Totals
All current betting spreads are quite short. While not all odds have been released, the longest spread is 10 points. Most point spreads are around 3 points, which is common with so many wild card matchups.
Like current point spreads, not many totals are released at the time of writing. Those that are posted are quite low, with most hovering around 45.
Our experts are closely studying the Over/Under for their wild card picks. There have been many notable trends with totals this season.
NFL Wild Card Preview
We wanted to preview the upcoming games before jumping into our NFL Wild Card picks. We will also analyze NFL betting trends to help you navigate Wild Card Weekend.
Injuries are piling up for numerous teams playing this weekend, some more severe than others.
TE Sam LaPorta (Lions) has an outside shot of playing (knee injury). Packers WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are both questionable. QB Jalen Hurts (Eagles) injured his finger in Week 18 but should be able to play, while WR A.J. Brown (Eagles) injured his knee and is at risk of not playing on Monday. WR DeVonta Smith (ankle) is also questionable for Philly. The Eagle’s offense will limp into their game.
The Eagles will be without safety Sydney Brown, as he ruptured his ACL in Week 18. WR Gabe Davis (Bills) has a sprained PCL and is listed as questionable. Buffalo also lost cornerback Rasul Douglas to injury in Week 18, and he’s confirmed to be out. Miami lost linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (foot injury) in Week 18, plus WR Jayden Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert are both questionable.
That covers most of the notable injuries for the Wild Card Round.
NFL Wild Card Betting Trends
Favorites and unders had the edge during the 2023-24 NFL regular season. Favorites went 139-127-4 (52.5%) against the spread (ATS) and unders went 146-125-1 (53.8%) during the regular season.
Will those NFL betting trends continue to hit in the playoffs? Let’s examine some Wild Card betting trends.
Have you heard of the NFL playoffs curse for QBs making their debut? Since the 2002 NFL season, QBs are 27-50 when making their first playoff start. When first-time starters are playing against a QB with playoff experience, the first-time starters are 22-38-1 (36.7%) ATS. In the last two years, first-time starters are just 1-5 straight up against teams starting a QB with playoff experience.
Since 2002, 30 QBs have made their playoff debut as a road underdog, and only seven have won. Three QBs (Tua Tagovailoa, Mason Rudolph and Jordan Love) are making their playoff debut as road dogs.
C.J. Stroud is the only rookie QB in the NFL playoffs this season. The last 17 rookies making their playoff debut are 7-10 (7-9-1 ATS). However, rookie QBs that are underdogs, which Stroud is this weekend, are just 2-8 (3-6-1 ATS) in their debut since 2002. Can Stroud upset the trends on Saturday?
Here are the betting results from the last three Wild Card Rounds (since expanding to six WC games):
- 2022-23 NFL Wild Card: Favorites: 4-2 (2-4 ATS) / Over/Under: 5-1
- 2021-22 NFL Wild Card: Favorites: 5-1 (5-1 ATS) / Over/Under: 3-3
- 2020-21 NFL Wild Card: Favorites: 4-2 (2-4 ATS) / Over/Under: 4-2
In the last three years in the Wild Card Round, favorites are 13-5 (9-9 ATS). The over/under record is 12-6 in the last three years. Targeting the overs has been a profitable Wild Card betting trend recently.
Make sure you consider these NFL Wild Card betting trends when making your Wild Card picks.
Super Wild Card Weekend
Browns Vs. Texans
Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET
NBC, fubo
Dolphins Vs. Chiefs
Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
Peacock
Steelers Vs. Bills
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1 p.m. ET
ABC
Packers Vs. Cowboys
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Rams Vs. Lions
Sunday, Jan. 14 at 8 p.m. ET
NBC, fubo
Eagles Vs. Buccaneers
Monday, Jan. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
NBC
Divisional Round: The 49ers will be playing the worst remaining seed in the NFC divisional round, while the Ravens will face the worst remaining seed in the AFC. Also, the Monday night game winner will play on Sunday in the divisional round.
NFL Wild Card Round Picks
Best Pick ATS
When making NFL Wild Card Round picks, trying to find the best pick against the spread should be at the top of the list. The Cleveland Browns visit the Houston Texans in the first Wild Card Game, and the Browns are slim 2.5-point favorites.
It has been a terrific season for the Houston Texans, and quarterback C.J. Stroud has been able to put up some massive numbers. Cleveland has a dominant defense, though, and the Browns will slow down Stroud and win this game by at least three points.
Best Moneyline Pick
Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit as he leads the Los Angeles Rams to face the Lions. Los Angeles has been playing some great football lately, but they are 3.5-point betting underdogs in the Wild Card Round.
Detroit has been an explosive offense all season long, but injuries and a lack of defense will hurt in this game. Look for Stafford to put on a show in this game, as he will get some revenge on his old team with a great performance.
Best Total Pick
The Green Bay Packers visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday in what will be an interesting matchup in the NFC. Dallas is a big betting favorite in this game, but focusing on the total number of points is the best option with this matchup.
Green Bay has shown the ability to put points on the board, but that defense has also struggled at times this season. This will be a game in which it might take 30 points to win, and the over/under line set at 50.5 is too low.
Best Player Prop
Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins will travel to Kansas City on Saturday night for an interesting matchup. Miami has been slumping of late, and that explosive offense will now have to find a way to score points in some frigid weather.
The Chiefs will need their best players to step up in this game, and Travis Kelce always seems to do that in the postseason. Backing Kelce to score a touchdown is one of the best NFL Wild Card Round picks to make, and that should be your focus.
Best Team Prop
The game with the biggest spread will occur in Buffalo, as the Bills are big 10-point betting favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. This spread shouldn’t be surprising based on how these two teams have been playing lately.
Pittsburgh is a team that can’t score, but they have been looking to win games with their terrific defense at every level. Buffalo has been scoring points on anyone, though, as the Bills are going to score at least 24 points on their way to a big win.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Philadelphia Eagles are limping into the playoffs, and they will head to Tampa Bay for an interesting matchup on Monday night. Tampa Bay won the NFC South Division title this season, but that had more to do with how bad the division is.
Philadelphia is still a slim betting favorite in this game, which makes sense based on their potential to get hot quickly. Tampa Bay will keep this game close, but the Eagles will bounce back and pick up a win by at least three points.
Elevate Your NFL Wild Card Weekend Experience with Expert Analysis from SportsHub
Dive into the NFL Wild Card excitement with our expert-led insights from SportsHub’s veteran analysts. Stay connected and engage with our dynamic community on Instagram @sports_hub_com and Twitter @sportshub_com. Explore a wide range of captivating content across YouTube, Twitch, Kick, and Discord.
Our partnership with SportsHub.com has been a journey of mutual growth and innovation. We are dedicated to offering an unmatched experience, and your collaboration has been vital. We welcome your feedback and suggestions to enhance our services further.
Trust our Wild Card predictions, powered by cutting-edge sports analytics. Our team is dedicated to providing precise forecasts, keeping you at the forefront of NFL action. Our thorough research ensures timely and crucial information, helping you confidently navigate the Wild Card round.
NFL Wild Card Weekend 2024 FAQ
What is the NFL Wild Card Round?
The NFL Wild Card Round is the first round of the NFL playoffs, featuring teams that have qualified for the postseason but did not win their division.
How are teams selected for the Wild Card Round?
Teams are selected based on their regular season records, with the top teams that did not win their division earning a Wild Card spot.
Is there any significance to playing on Saturday vs. Sunday or Monday?
The scheduling is primarily for TV viewership purposes and has no inherent advantage or disadvantage for the teams.